Less than a week after the EiTB Focus survey awarded a tie of 27-28 seats to PNV and EH Bildu, the Basque Government Sociometer agrees in advancing a tie between these formations, although on this occasion at 29 seats. This same survey reported in its previous delivery a tie of 27 seats, so the trend indicates that the polarization between these two formations and the perception that the campaign is above all a matter of two parties would be fueling both formations.
This result of a tie at 29 seats would imply a drop of two seats on the part of the PNV and a spectacular rise of EH Bildu, which would go from its current 21 representatives to equal the Jeltzales. The sum of the two formations, in addition, would reach its historical ceiling and the Basque Parliament that would be configured would be the most nationalist in history, with 58 parliamentarians out of a total of 75 (77%), clearly above the current Basque Parliament ( 52 between PNV and EH Bildu), which was already the most Basque nationalist in history.
According to the Sociometro, EH Bildu would win clearly in Gipuzkoa and would win in votes in Álava, although it would tie with the PNV for seats in this territory. The PNV, meanwhile, would maintain its hegemony in Bizkaia, although it would lose one seat.
The fight between the PNV and EH Bildu is the main element of interest ahead of the elections, since there could be an unprecedented surprise in elections to the Basque Parliament by the Abertzale coalition, which in the current Basque Parliament has 10 parliamentarians of the jeltzals. In any case, it could be a symbolic victory, very important, but one that would not give him the option of governing against the historic alliance of PNV and PSE.
Not in vain, to access Ajuria Enea an absolute majority of 38 deputies is needed or, failing that, a simple majority in the second vote. Therefore, the second fundamental element of analysis is whether the PNV and the PSE have an absolute majority, something that would allow them to reissue a Basque Executive similar to the current one and govern with some comfort.
The Sociometer of the Basque Government grants the socialists 10 seats, the same ones they have today, so that PNV and PSE could reissue their current alliance, form an Executive similar to the current one and govern with a majority.
As for the rest of the parties, the PP would remain on its historical ground of representation, maintaining the 6 seats it achieved four years ago in coalition with Ciudadanos, which does not appear in Euskadi.
Finally, the space of the confederal Basque left, which would compete divided into the candidacies of Sumar and Podemos, would suffer a strong blow, and would go from the current 6 seats of Elkarrekin Podemos to a single seat, which Sumar would achieve in Gipuzkoa.
