Vice President Kamala Harris continues to solidify her lead with female voters in the latest polling data, showcasing a surge in support following the Democratic National Convention held in Chicago last month. While this increase in popularity among women has not yet translated into a significant bump in overall national support, Harris is maintaining her edge over President Trump as enthusiasm among her base remains strong.
The most recent poll conducted by ABC News and Ipsos, released on Sunday, reveals that Vice President Harris is holding onto her lead with both registered and likely voters. This lead was established shortly after President Biden exited the race, leaving Harris as the presumptive nominee. Among likely voters, Harris currently leads Trump by six points, with 52 percent supporting her compared to 46 percent for the incumbent president. Similarly, she is favored by registered voters and all adults by a margin of 50 percent to 46 percent in both demographics. Prior to the convention last month, Harris held a similar lead over Trump among registered voters, with a margin of 50 percent to 45 percent.
One of Harris’s key strengths in maintaining her lead has been her appeal to women voters. The latest polling data shows that women now favor Harris by a substantial margin of 54 percent to 41 percent, representing a significant 13-point advantage. This marks a notable increase from the six-point advantage Harris held with women before the Democratic National Convention. Conversely, Trump maintains a lead among male voters, with 51 percent supporting him compared to 46 percent for Harris.
Despite her strong polling numbers among women, Harris has yet to reach the level of female support that Biden garnered in the 2020 election. Four years ago, Biden secured 57 percent of the female vote, while Trump received just 42 percent. This highlights an area where Harris may still have room for growth in terms of expanding her support among women voters.
The polling data also sheds light on the perception of the two candidates in terms of their competence, fitness for office, and campaign effectiveness. Respondents to the survey viewed Harris as a more competent and physically fit potential president compared to Trump, with her campaign being seen as more effective and organized than that of her opponent. A majority of respondents, 56 percent, believe that Harris’s campaign is doing an excellent or good job, whereas only 41 percent say the same of the Trump campaign. Notably, even 24 percent of Republicans acknowledge that Harris is running an effective campaign for the White House.
The poll, conducted between August 23 and August 27 immediately following the Democratic National Convention, has a margin of error of two points. While the ABC survey indicates strong support for Harris, not all pollsters are in agreement. Mark Mitchell, head pollster at Rasmussen Reports, criticized the ABC survey for overestimating Harris’s favorability numbers while downplaying Trump’s. According to the ABC survey, Harris has a net favorability rating of three points, with 46 percent favorable and 43 percent unfavorable, while Trump has a net negative favorable rating of 25 points, with 33 percent favorable and 58 percent unfavorable. In contrast, a FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Trump with a net negative favorable rating of about ten points, and Harris with a net negative favorable rating of about seven points. Mitchell highlighted the disparity in favorability ratings between the ABC survey and other polling sources, questioning the accuracy of the results.
Harris’s candidacy may receive a boost from her selection of Governor Walz as her running mate, who is perceived as more likable and prepared for the presidency compared to his Republican counterpart, Senator Vance. Governor Walz holds a favorable rating of 42 percent and an unfavorable rating of just 31 percent, indicating a positive reception among voters. Before the convention, his favorable rating stood at 39 percent, with an unfavorable rating of 30 percent, showing a slight increase in favorability. In contrast, Senator Vance has seen his unfavorable ratings rise slightly, with only 32 percent of voters holding a positive view of him compared to 44 percent who have an unfavorable view. When it comes to preparedness for the presidency, 49 percent believe Governor Walz could serve effectively as commander-in-chief, while only 41 percent say the same of Senator Vance.
In response to the ABC-Ipsos survey, the Trump campaign dismissed the findings as “trash.” Senior advisor Jason Miller criticized certain media outlets for allegedly promoting Harris and undermining Trump, even in minor details. The Trump campaign’s dissatisfaction with the survey results reflects the ongoing contentious nature of the presidential race, with both sides seeking to discredit unfavorable polling data.
Overall, Vice President Kamala Harris’s lead with female voters and her strong polling numbers among likely and registered voters indicate a solid foundation for her campaign. While there are areas where she can still improve, such as expanding support among women and addressing discrepancies in favorability ratings, Harris’s continued momentum suggests a competitive race ahead. As the presidential election draws closer, the dynamics of the campaign will likely continue to evolve, shaping the final outcome in November.