The PP advanced the elections in Galicia to take advantage of the socialist weakness due to the Amnesty law. In the final stretch of the campaign, he turned towards messages more focused on Galician concerns when he found that Ana Pontón, the BNG candidate, with a campaign critical of the management of the Xunta, but constructive and avoiding identity issues, it almost gives him a fright. The turn in time had an effect and the popular people came out victorious. Towards half a century of autonomous Spain, each community cultivates its own codes. The elections to the presidency of the Generalitat are perhaps one of the most decisive for Spanish politics in recent decades, because the pacts between Pedro Sánchez and the pro-independence parties cause a curious symbiosis, but what is relevant will be to sense the priority motivation of the voters on May 12. Will the driven Catalans vote to keep the flame of the process alive? Will they vote with the will to “turn the page”? Or will they think about who can better manage the lack of housing, the poor results of education, the drought or the tourist model?
The Amnesty law has become a core issue of Spanish politics, of those who put the kettle on the boil inside the M-30, but the big question is what worries the Catalans the most: the yearning for independence, the unity of Spain or the management of other affairs. Even if ERC or Junts insist that the two concerns are not exclusive, one always weighs more when voting. Pontón perceived it in Galicia and did not hesitate to emphasize its offer on housing or healthcare over the sovereignist aspirations, which were taken for granted.
Pere Aragonès follows Pontón’s line, but the difference is that she is in the opposition, and he, in the Government, so it is ERC that will receive criticism from the rest for its management. The Republicans present themselves at the beginning of the campaign as the only “responsible” independentists. The PSC, according to the republicans, would also be included among those responsible, but they remember that Salvador Illano can “never stand in front of Sánchez” to demand more resources for Catalonia. Instead, they place Together and the commons on the side of the irresponsible.
Junts leaders live in a curious ambivalence. Some days they declare themselves heirs to Convergència’s managerial solvency and the next day they deny that past to reinforce the image of implacable negotiators with the central government. Nothing about “fish in the cave” or weaknesses with the Spanish State, they proclaim. But the Junts campaign will be marked by Carles Puigdemont (as is the case now in the party) and the former president has already given signs that he wants him to turn on his eventual return to Catalonia, with the consequent risk of being arrested and imprisoned.
Coups are the ex-president’s specialty. The same Puigdemont who a couple of months ago privately assured the PSOE that he was prepared to delay his return if the Amnesty law was approved to avoid further wear and tear on Sánchez is the one who is now letting it slip that he could return even before the rule comes into force to cause a judicial earthquake. It would be about assuming a “certain risk” of going to prison, in principle for two or three months, in exchange for winning the elections or, at least, advancing ERC. At the moment its environment is what pulls the hook. He has only said that he would like to be there for the inauguration of the president, when the Amnesty law will already be in force. To return with less legal risk, Puigdemont should stand in the Catalan elections at the same time that he maintains his MEP record.
If Puigdemont succeeds in making the campaign revolve around his return, the speech will be placed where he is most comfortable, that of the confrontation with the “repression of the State”, the narrative that he has maintained for six years, but that the law of Amnesty left in the dead. The scenario of elections marked by a possible return of Puigdemont harms ERC, but also the PSC, which collected many votes from Citizens in the last elections, and also complicates the scenario for Sánchez. A return of the former president in the middle of the campaign would leave the newly launched dialogue between the PSOE and Junts untouched. And, without a doubt, it would feed the PP and Vox.
Therefore, the rest of the candidates are interested in Puigdemont not being the protagonist and will try to orient the campaign to other issues. This is what Aragonès is trying to do, but especially Illa. The Catalan socialists celebrated their congress at the weekend with the slogan “Now it’s Catalonia’s turn”. The “ara toca” is the reverse of the “ara no toca” used by Pujol. A nostalgic reference that the PDECat also used to ask the classic convergents to vote. The poor educational results of the PISA report, the drought, the hesitation in front of projects such as the airport or the Hard Rock or the energy delay in Catalonia are their campaign slogans. The PSC is asking for the vote to return to the Catalonia that worked before pouring all the attention into the process.
Identifying what these elections are about, what is the priority of the Catalans now and not getting carried away by other arguments will be the key to the 12-M. The electoral results in Catalonia have marked Spanish politics since the beginning of the century, since that photo by José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero on the balcony of the Generalitat, embarking with the tripartite on the new Statute, going through the independence process and its consequences, which today still determine the alliances that maintain the PSOE in Moncloa. If it was played a lot in Galicia, in Catalonia Pedro Sánchez is examined.
