Salvador Illa’s PSC is the bet of the Catalan money world for the next Catalan elections on May 12. A plan that is not based on an agreement on economic policy, since, although they share proposals, such as the expansion of El Prat airport or support for the Hard Rock, they clearly diverge in terms of taxation. He believes that the socialist has the possibility of preventing a new pro-independence majority, which would definitively close the long process and could open a new stage of political stability, negotiation with Madrid and recovery after what they describe as a long lost time.
This approach largely diverges from that of the Spanish economic elites, in which the desire to deal a new setback to Sanchoism prevails over the rejection of independence. “In the Spanish centers of economic power, it matters little who governs Catalonia, even, it doesn’t matter who governs the Community of Madrid either. What worries is who holds the presidency of the government”, points out a well-known representative of this elite. Continuing to wear down Pedro Sánchez and his alliance with Sumar is the priority and the Catalan elections are a stage on the way, after the Galician elections and on the way to the Basque ones, which lead to the European elections.
Officially, in Madrid, for example, in the context of the large employers’ organization CEOE, it is ensured that there are many Spanish businessmen who wish, like the Catalans, the recovery of “normality”. Either way, they don’t express it publicly either.
However, pending the counting of the votes, for the moment the possibility of the Socialists governing the Generalitat alone seems remote. Alliances seem crucial in deciding who will be the next president.
What would be the preferred option of the Catalan bourgeoisie? With many nuances, a PSC-Junts pact, although with much less conviction than a few months ago. Incessant debates in the organizations and forums of the economic elite – from Foment de Josep Sánchez Llibre to the Cercle d’Economia de Jaume Guardiola – about whether it is possible for Junts to one day become a new Convergence, once the nightmare of the process has vanished.
Along the way, Junts has proposed to sanction the Catalan companies that moved their headquarters after the crisis following the referendum of October 1, 2017 and that have not brought them back, which shocked the business community Catalan.
Facilitating the evolution of Junts towards a kind of neo-Pujolism has been the confessed objective of the president of Foment, Josep Sánchez Llibre, the main driver of an agreement with the formation of Carles Puigdemont. Always with the support of the first financial and business swords of Catalonia. Also, some from Madrid. In addition to the effects on politics in Barcelona, ??also because it opened the door to an agreement with the PNB that counterbalanced some policies of the PSOE-Sumar Government. A conservative front of the peripheral bourgeoisie that offered another way to Sánchez for certain fiscal and economic policy measures.
And now this bet continues, but much more cautiously, on the table. This line would be justified, firstly because Junts defines a program that they consider similar, especially regarding taxation. They remember, for example, that Puigdemont’s formation proposed the elimination of inheritance tax as a star measure in the failed negotiation of the Generalitat’s budgets, the failure of which has led to the calling of the elections and the extension of those of the State for this year.
And taxation is a priority point for business organizations and large corporations. The president of the Generalitat Valenciana, Carlos Mazón, was heard with envy at the Barcelona headquarters of Foment on Tuesday. The leader of the PP deployed his sample of tax cuts – from the green ones to the commercial ones; inheritances and donations and other economic operations – and this despite the precarious financial situation of the community it presides over. First, the discount; later, he will see where he gets the money. It seems to be their motto. Businesses say they feel surrounded by communities that take these types of tax breaks; in addition to Valencia, Aragon and the Balearic Islands, all controlled by the PP.
The other element always present in the calculation of the nobles of the economy is that of financing. They continue to think that the claim of outstanding investments is the main vector. And the document on regional financing signed by the main economic associations is now out of play. It was envisaged as support in a hypothetical negotiation of the funding model derived from the budget pact in Congress. With the new overtime scenario, they see it as less operational. Nor do they see any possibility of raising the fiscal pact, which they based on the initial period of the process, when it was put on the table by Artur Mas, and which they have never demanded again.
Flirting with Junts also has components of simple tactics. The alternative to the pact between the socialists and the pro-independence parties would be either a pact with the ERC or even a new tripartite party, in this case adding the commons.
The first option would mean, in the opinion of the economic leaders consulted, keeping the red lights on current projects with the outgoing Government of Pere Aragonès. Although recently the president of ERC, Oriol Junqueras, has again made approaches to employers that could suggest a certain course correction, which no one considers consolidated. The tripartite idea is perceived worse. A Catalan version of the Sánchez Government, which has already been filmed twice and they don’t want to see it again.
