The Spanish birth rate not only remains at historic lows but also continues to fall. According to the data published yesterday by the INE, between January and March 78,534 babies were born in Spain, 1.7% less than in the same period last year. But if perspective is gained and pre-pandemic references are sought, it can be seen that this year 10% fewer children have been born each month than in 2019, a figure that supports the idea that demographics is one of the great challenges facing society Spanish.
Because it is not only that fewer children are born, but also that people live longer. The Spanish child population has been reduced by half since the 1960s: if that year the age group between 0 and 14 represented 27% of the population, in 2021 they barely constituted 14%, and in areas such as Asturias , are only 11%, according to data published a few months ago by Funcas. Hence, in Spain there are already more dogs than children.
At the same time, as a result of greater longevity, the median age of the Spanish population has not stopped growing, such that, according to Eurostat, more than half are over 45 years of age (46.2 in the case of women). .
And this change of countrymanship entails a great social and economic transformation that poses challenges in practically all areas: from the pension system to the shortage of labor, passing through the transformation of universities, health services and care, the need to attract immigration or changes in family models and in attitudes and values.
Hence, for example, immigration agreements such as the one reached last week by Pedro Sánchez with Joe Biden to welcome refugees from Latin America to Spain, offering them an employment contract that suits their professional skills.
Because, the specialists warn, the demographic data make it clear that there will hardly be a recovery in the birth rate in the coming years given that the number of births depends on the number of candidates to be mothers (the fertile population) and the desire or possibilities of those women to have children (the fertility rate). And both are going down.
Among other reasons, because women born in the mid-1980s are in their thirties – the age at which the greatest number of births are concentrated – which was a period of low fertility and low birth rates because a strong economic crisis was combined with social changes derived from the decriminalization of contraceptives and abortion and the widespread incorporation of women into the labor market.
“We are witnessing the perfect storm to continue having few births for years to come,” commented the director of the Center d’Estudis Demográfics (CED), Albert Esteve, in conversation with this newspaper a few months ago.
The same diagnosis offered by Diego Ramiro, director of the CSIC’s Institute of Economics, Geography and Demography: those who would be today’s grandmothers had few children, and their daughters, in addition to being few, also have very low fertility, thus that the number of births will continue to decline not so much because of what is done now but because of what happened decades ago.
According to demographers, we will have to wait until women born between 2000 and 2008 (the period in which more babies were born) reach their thirties or forties to see if the birth rate recovers.
But they are not too optimistic either, because low fertility in Spain is not just a matter of women. The number of children per man has not only been reduced in recent decades, but it is less than per woman. In 2021, male fertility stood at 1.06 children, while female fertility was 1.18, according to a study by Pau Miret, a CED researcher.
And if demography experts are clear about something, it is that the fertility rate, the average number of children per person, does not change easily nor is it easy to stimulate, because it depends on multiple and complex factors, such as the age of emancipation of young people, the labor market, the possibility of forming a couple, of accessing a home… And all these aspects play against Spain.
The emancipation age stands at 30 years and will continue to grow, because the latest studies reveal that there are many who cannot become financially independent from their parents even when they have a job. The fundamental reason is the enormous difficulty they have in accessing a home, whether rented or owned.
But the problem is not only economic, nor would it be solved with more jobs and better wages for young people or a more accessible housing stock. After the fall in the birth rate there is also a problem of imbalance in what experts call the marriage market. In Spain it is difficult to find a stable partner and that makes plans to have children postponed. More than 10% of births correspond to women over 40 years of age, and a significant percentage of them attribute their delay in becoming a mother to the lack of a partner. In fact, more and more are facing motherhood alone (more than 17% according to CSIC researchers).
This has to do with demographic imbalances: the tendency of heterosexual men to mate with younger women continues and, since each demographic cohort is shorter, there are fewer “marriageables” than “suitors”, in the opinion of some economists. But demographers and sociologists point to other reasons: from the delay in emancipation already mentioned (which makes the person more demanding at an older age) to the greater instability of relationships, including the higher educational level of women , the greater demands in terms of equality and involvement in domestic tasks and the lesser social relevance that is given to the fact of having children.
For all these reasons, the demographers consulted believe that any increase in the Spanish population in the short or medium term will have to come hand in hand with new migrations.
