According to the governor of the region and Western military analysts, Ukrainian troops could soon be forced to withdraw from a major eastern city. This is because of Russian advances.
While the soldiers defending Sievierodonetsk continue to “fight for every inch,” they may need to retreat as Russia attempts to take control of the city. Sergiy Haidai stated Wednesday morning.
Haidai, speaking on Ukrainian TV, said that even if the army had to withdraw to more fortified positions because everything is being shot at 24/7 that doesn’t mean anyone is giving up the city.
He later stated, “But yes. It’s possible that we will still need to retreat.”
In recent weeks, the main conflict has been the street-by-street struggle for Sievierodonetsk. Russia is slowly moving towards its larger goal of retaking the entire industrial Donbas region.
In a battle that is difficult to understand, artillery has decimated the last major city under Ukrainian control in Luhansk. It was located in the Luhansk region. Although Kyiv claimed that its forces had gained some ground after a counteroffensive, the situation seems to have worsened.
U.S. defense contractor Maxar Technologies released satellite imagery on Wednesday showing what it called “significant damage” to Sievierodonetsk, and the surrounding areas. This comes amid fears that the city could become a new Mariupol. The key port was under siege by the Russians and left in ruins after the fighting.
The British military and the Institute for the Study of War (a U.S-based military think tank) both concluded that the situation in the city was still fluid. However, some analysts believe that the possibility of a Ukrainian retreat is possible.
“Ukrainian units will likely retreat as Russian forces enter Sievierodonetsk.” In his assessment of the first 100 day of war, Michael Kofman, research program director at the Russia Studies Program at CNA in Washington, stated Friday that Ukrainian units are likely to retreat “First to Lysychansk”, and then further.
Kofman said Wednesday to NBC News that he largely viewed Ukraine’s counterattack in Sievierodonetsk “a spoiling strike, tying down Russian troops,” and suggested that Ukraine might have to retreat to secondary line and leave the region.
Late Tuesday, the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zeleskyy claimed that his soldiers were protecting the Donbas “heroically” and that Russia had lost 31,000 combatants since the start of the conflict. NBC News has not confirmed the death tolls on either side.
Zelenskyy declared Sievierodonetsk und Lysychansk “dead towns” on Monday as most residents fled the fighting.
The critical infrastructure in Sievierodonetsk has been lost by the Ukrainians, and they could seek “a sensible withdrawal” of the city, Michael Clarke from King’s College London’s professor of war studies, stated. Clarke said that the city is not very important strategically but has been made symbolically important by Russia, much like Mariupol.
He expects that the Ukrainian forces will retreat to Lysychansk and make another stand there, holding it as long as possible. Lysychansk is on higher ground, and Russian troops would need to cross the Siverskyi Donets to attack it.
Russia would lose Luhansk if it lost both, which is Russia’s main goal in the Donbas offensive. This has been the center of Russia’s war after previous setbacks that were highlighted by a pullback around Kyiv.
Zelenskyy stated Tuesday that Ukraine will eventually seek to regain control over all its territories occupied by Russia.
While retreating now might make sense militaryly for Ukraine, it could be a devastating blow that is difficult to reverse.
According to Michael A. Horowitz (a geopolitical security analyst and head of intelligence at Le Beck International), the dilemma facing the Ukrainian military and political leadership in relation to Sievierodonetsk is a problem.
Horowitz stated that if we move towards a long war by attrition, losing a large city like Sievierodonetsk, and not having any prospects of taking it back, it will be a problem for Ukraine.
