Over the past few weeks, the debate that began in the summer of 2021 on the need for and implications of expanding Barcelona airport has gained new intensity. At this moment, there are different proposals on the table, ranging from doing nothing (counting on the diversion of part of the traffic to the Reus and Girona airports) to extensions of existing runways or the construction of a new runway over the sea.
In the 2010-2019 period, traffic at Barcelona airport increased from 29.2 to 52.7 million passengers per year, which represented a cumulative annual rate of 6.8%. According to the data published by AENA, traffic in 2022 was 41.6 million, 21% less than in 2019. This recovery rate is in line with that of other airports, and it is expected that the level of 2019 recover in 2024. The outbreak of the pandemic has given additional time to design and study the most appropriate investment alternative for Barcelona airport.
The key question in the debate is whether the airport should have a runway of sufficient length to allow it to increase the number of intercontinental connections as a necessary element to boost Barcelona’s attractiveness and allow it to attract headquarters of companies from dynamic sectors and with the capacity to growth. The Air Route Development Committee (CDRA) -formed by the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce, the Generalitat, the City Council and AENA- in the years prior to the pandemic managed to significantly increase intercontinental connectivity, reaching 49 destinations, a figure which today stands at 43. The recovery of routes with the American continent stands out, while this has not been the case with the cities of Asia. In addition, the number of companies operating in the intercontinental flight segment has not recovered either: of the 42 companies that operated in 2019, only 36 did so. In any case, the increase in connectivity with cities in Asia and America continues to be the priority target.
The point we want to point out is that the problem of the lack of intercontinental connections will not be solved only by providing a runway of adequate length, since the decision to offer such routes will depend on the airlines and, ultimately, on the expected profitability of each route. From this point of view, the expansion can be considered a necessary condition, but not a sufficient one to improve Barcelona’s global connectivity.
We can consider that there are two strategies to achieve this objective. On the one hand, it would be a matter of reaching agreements with airlines that operate in different parts of the world so that they include Barcelona among their destinations, as the CDRA has been doing. In this line, it should be evaluated what type of reform or extension would be necessary to guarantee the success of this policy. The other strategy, which seems to be in the background of some of the expansion proposals, is to ensure that Barcelona becomes a hub for air connections, allowing connections between a wide range of destinations, giving rise to the called ‘network economies’.
From this perspective, improving Barcelona’s intercontinental connectivity would mean getting a large airline to decide to organize its operations structure from our airport. The problem for this is that currently there do not seem to be any European companies that need a new airport with hub functions. Among those that operate long-haul flights, Lufthansa has bases in Frankfurt and Munich, Air France-KLM with Amsterdam and Paris, and the IAG group with Madrid and London, while the new Istanbul airport offers sufficient capacity for Turkish Airlines .
For all of the above, we believe that the debate on the possibilities of expanding the airport should be expanded to include the strategies that can be used to consolidate long-haul operations, from a long-term perspective. These strategies must take into account that infrastructures by themselves do not generate traffic. Transport policy, to be effective and not waste resources, must be coordinated with policies aimed at promoting sectors with the greatest potential for economic growth. Otherwise, we run the risk of carrying out an expansion that only serves to expand the capacity to accommodate short or medium-haul flights, in which we have specialized in recent years.
Anna Matas is Professor of Economics at the UAB and researcher at the Institut d’Economia de Barcelona
Javier Asensio is a professor of Economics at the UAB and a researcher at the Institut d’Economia de Barcelona
