In a recent CBS News poll, Democratic incumbent Bob Casey is maintaining a slight lead over Republican Dave McCormick in the Pennsylvania Senate race. The poll shows Casey ahead by six points, which falls within the margin of error. More voters in the state view Casey’s positions as “reasonable” rather than “extreme,” giving him an edge over McCormick, whose views are more mixed.
It’s worth noting that Casey has consistently led in previous polls conducted by CBS News in April and September. However, the race remains competitive as undecided voters seem to be leaning towards the GOP. While McCormick has strong support from Republicans at 84%, it still lags behind Casey’s 92% support among Democrats.
Interestingly, Casey is performing better than Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania, as she is tied with former President Donald Trump in the state’s presidential race. Casey is particularly appealing to White, non-college men, as he is losing them by only half the margin that Harris is. Trump’s endorsement of McCormick doesn’t seem to be significantly influencing voters, with most saying it makes no difference in their decision. In fact, a third of independents, a crucial voting bloc for McCormick, say it actually makes them less likely to support him.
Overall, 7% of likely voters in Pennsylvania remain undecided about their Senate vote, adding an element of unpredictability to the race. The CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a sample of 1,273 registered voters in Pennsylvania from October 22-28, 2024, and weighted according to various demographic factors to ensure representativeness.
The Deputy Director of Elections & Data Analytics at CBS News, Kabir Khanna, who oversees surveys and statistical models for the network’s Decision Desk, provides valuable insights into the political landscape. With a Ph.D. in political science from Princeton University, Khanna’s expertise sheds light on the dynamics of the Pennsylvania Senate race and the factors influencing voter behavior.
As the race enters its final week, both Casey and McCormick are vying for support across party lines and demographic groups. With the margin of error still in play, every vote counts in determining the outcome of this closely watched Senate race in Pennsylvania. Stay tuned for more updates as the election approaches.
