Iran’s much-publicized but unprecedented attack on Israel passed with almost no damage, but it has materialized fears of a regional conflict, especially in light of Israel’s promise of another counterattack.
Israel’s political and military leaders congratulated themselves for intercepting “99 percent” of more than 300 missiles fired by Tehran, which defended its action as retaliation for Israel’s bombing of the Damascus embassy. on April 1, which killed seven members of the Revolutionary Guard.
According to army spokesman Daniel Hagari, 170 drones and 30 cruise missiles were shot down outside Israeli airspace, as were the “vast majority” of the 120 ballistic missiles. At the same time, other air assaults launched by pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, by Hezbollah in Lebanon and by the Houthi rebels in Yemen were repelled.
Israel counted on this task with the support of combat aircraft from the United States, the United Kingdom and, notably, Jordan, an Arab nation with which it has had a peace treaty since 1994, which is very critical of the Israeli invasion of Gaza .
The missiles that penetrated the Israeli defenses caused “insignificant damage” to the infrastructure of the Nevatim air base, which also did not interrupt its operation. It is a crucial facility for the Israeli bombing of Gaza, which did not even stop during the Iranian attack. In addition, a 7-year-old girl from a Bedouin community in southern Israel was injured by shrapnel from a downed missile that fell into her home while she was sleeping. The minor has undergone surgery for a severe head injury.
Although the impact was minimal, for the Israelis it was a long night, which began with the announcement of various measures – such as the restriction of gatherings and the closure of airspace – and peaked shortly before two in the morning, when the sirens sounded in several areas of the territory.
Then the interceptions of Iranian missiles were heard, especially in Jerusalem, and some recorded in photos and videos the projectiles that pierced the sky above iconic buildings such as the Israeli Parliament or the Al Mosque -Aqsa.
In Petah Tikva, ten kilometers from Tel-Aviv, there were no alerts, but Spanish-Mexican Sammy Levi admits that “it did scare me when they said ballistic missiles were coming”. “We are used to it, we already know the civil protection instructions, we know what to do – he explains to La Vanguardia -. But this was different, because we didn’t know how much time we would have or what we had to do, because nobody really knows what drones are.”
This surgeon who works at the Barzilai hospital in Ascaló, four kilometers from the strip, could not rest because “I was called all the time from the hospitals with states of alert” and, “as they say in Israel, we sleep with your boots on”. “My family slept well, no one heard anything – he continues -. I heard the air force planes very loudly and they did wake me up, but there were no alarms.”
On Sunday morning, after the authorities indicated that it was no longer necessary to be close to the shelters and that the flights were rehabilitated, the streets showed a relative normality, although with airs of strangeness. The start of the work week was marked by the cancellation of classes at all educational levels and the uncertainty of whether there will be another Israeli retaliation.
Iran’s show of power with its unprecedented direct attack on Israel, analysts agree, was aimed at easing domestic pressures (as evidenced by state television’s live coverage of the offensive and demonstrations of support for streets), strengthen their legitimacy with supporters and draw a line in deterrence with Israel.
Even so, he did it in a calibrated way against military targets to, a priori, reduce the prospects of an Israeli retaliation. Foreign Minister Amir Abdul·lahian indicated that the United States was informed of a “limited” campaign and that neighbors received a warning 72 hours before the attacks.
For Tehran, the issue is closed, although the head of its army, Muhammad Bagheri, warns that “our response will be much greater if Israel retaliates against Iran” and that US bases could be attacked if Washington supports an Israeli counterattack.
“I don’t think Israel sees it that way,” warns Sima Shine, former Mossad officer and head of the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. What is at issue is the extent of the response. Although the most radical wing of the Government has already expressed itself in favor of an “overwhelming attack” against Tehran, the minister of the war cabinet, Benny Gantz, has warned that the Israeli retaliation will be “in the manner and in the moment they are right for us” and that Israel must “build a regional coalition” to contain Iran.
For his part, Biden congratulated the prime minister for the “remarkable defense capacity”, which sends “a clear message to the enemies: they cannot threaten the security of Israel”. What was not said in the White House statement is that the president, according to US media, would have made it clear to Netanyahu that Washington will not support a direct assault on Iranian territory.
Thus, while the United States leads Western condemnation of Iranian retaliation and leads the global call to avoid a broad escalation in the Middle East, Shine adds that “Israel will hesitate to do [a counterattack] without Washington’s approval.”
Netanyahu’s administration could benefit from a breath of fresh air from the Iranian threat, which has deflected international criticism for its destruction of Gaza, with more than 33,000 Palestinians killed by its attacks, has clouded anti-government protests and the demands for an agreement with Hamas for the release of hostages, and has renewed the prospects of an international alliance against Iran so desired by Israel.
The decision on how to respond to Iran’s attack rests with the triumvirate that includes Benny Gantz, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. And while hot on the heels of the Iranian attack, an immediate response was assessed, the New York Times reported that President Joe Biden interceded to curb the possibility in his call with Netanyahu. Gallant has regularly expressed himself as closely aligned with Netanyahu. He was the first to state, yesterday afternoon, that “this is not over”.
Gantz, for his part, seems to keep more distance from Netanyahu, if only for electoral reasons. He has also gone abroad several times to mark his own profile. However, he shares Netanyahu’s essential vision about the future of Israel and the Palestinians.
