Antony Blinken, U.S. Secretary Of State, says Washington has given the “green light” and is actively looking into a proposal where Ukraine’s neighbor Poland would supply Kyiv Soviet-era fighters in return for American F-16s.
The proposition is uncertain and Poland has not been enthusiastic about it. This is largely due to Russia’s warning that Russia would see supporting Ukraine’s military forces as a sign of Moscow’s participation in the conflict, and could open up the door for possible retaliation. The official response from NATO member Poland and the European Union member Poland was to confirm that talks are continuing on this subject.
WHY DO UKRAINE NEED WARPLANES
Ukraine’s air force relies on Soviet-made Mig-29 fighters and Su-29 fighters to defend its skies from Russia’s military invasion. This began February 24, and the Ukrainian government has asked for more warplanes in order to keep the mission alive.
Despite being outnumbered by the Russian air force, the Ukrainian air force continues to fly combat sorties and claim kills during combat despite repeated claims by the Russian military that the Russian military has suppressed Ukraine’s air power and air defense capabilities.
WHY DO WE WARPLANES NOT?
Ukraine’s military pilots have not been trained to fly U.S. fighter jets, and would be better equipped to handle the MiG-29 and Su planes currently being used by ex-Soviet-bloc NATO member Poland, Bulgaria, and Slovakia.
Ukrainian pilots will be able fly MiGs immediately, but Poland doesn’t want to lose large amounts of its air force. As Poland modernizes its military, U.S.-made F-16s have become the mainstay of its air force.
POLAND’S REPONSE:
Blinken stated that there is a “green signal” for Poland to send planes into Ukraine.
“We are actively looking now at the question about planes Poland can supply to Ukraine and looking into how we might be capable of backfilling should Poland decide to provide those planes. “I can’t give you a time frame, but I can tell you that we are looking into it very, very actively,” Blinken stated on Sunday in Moldova.
However, the response from Poland was moderate.
Piotr Mueller, a government spokesperson, stated that “as far as sending airplanes, I cannot only repeat that none have been made on the subject.”
Mueller refuted claims that Poland might be making its airfields accessible to Ukrainian warplanes. Russia claims that Ukraine’s warplanes are being hosted by Romania and other countries it did not name.
Poland has supported Ukraine politically by supporting its territorial integrity and sovereignty and humanitarianly by opening its borders to refugees from non-EU countries.
WHY IS POLAND NON-COMMITAL?
Despite its support for Ukraine’s struggle, Warsaw faces a critical and difficult decision about making its planes available for Ukraine.
Russia warned Ukraine’s neighbours against hosting its warplanes onto their territory, saying Moscow could view that as an “engagement in military conflict.” This could lead to hostilities.
Russia could interpret Russia’s warnings as an even greater warning against supporting Ukraine’s air force.
Poland borders Russia through the Kaliningrad exclave. It also shares a long border to Russia’s close ally Belarus. Relations between Warsaw, Moscow are at an all-time low since the election of a right-wing government in Poland in 2015.
AUTOTHER CONSIDERATIONS
The main issue is where these MiGs would be located if they were made available. They couldn’t be located on NATO soil. Given the war on Ukraine’s territory, it is not clear if Ukraine could safely house or service them.
The delivery of the planes to Ukraine is another question that needs to be resolved. Polish pilots are NATO pilots and cannot fly the planes to Ukraine. Sending Ukrainian pilots back to Poland could pose similar problems.
The F-16 production backlog means that countries who might give their MiGs or Su fighters to Ukraine will need to wait for it to fill.
U.S. U.S. Senator Marco Rubio summarized the situation by saying, “There are complications that come with. It’s more complicated than just handing it in. These must be flown in. They had to be stationed somewhere on the ground.
“And… The Russians have launched a pretty — anywhere between eight and 12 rockets at an Airport in the sort of West of Ukraine. Rubio, a Republican of Florida, said that it was part of a strategy to deprive them of places to move the airframe.
