High ranking officials from Russia and Ukraine, France, Germany, and France will meet in Berlin on Thursday to discuss how to implement the 2015 deal signed in Minsk, Belarus.
Let’s take a look at some of the key points in the document and discuss the issues surrounding its implementation.
CONFLICT IN EAST
Russia responded to the February 2014 expulsion in Kyiv by annexeing Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, and supporting a separatist insurgency within the country’s eastern industrial region of the Donbas (mostly Russian-speaking).
Volunteer battalions and Ukrainian troops engaged in fierce and destructive battles against rebels, involving heavy artillery and armor as well as combat aircraft.
The West and Ukraine accused Russia of supporting separatists with weapons and troops. Moscow denied the accusations and said that all Russians who fought for the East were volunteers.
On July 17, 2014, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was attacked by rebels and crashed over eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 passengers. A worldwide investigation found that the missile was fired from rebel-controlled territory and caused the destruction of the jetliner. The weapon was said to have been brought into Ukraine by a Russian military base, but Moscow strongly denied it.
France and Germany’s leaders began negotiations to reach a truce with Russia and Ukraine in June 2014 when they met in Normandy (France) in what was later called the Normandy format.
FIGHTING and NEGOTIATIONS
Representatives from Kyiv and rebels signed a cease-fire in Minsk on September 2014 after a huge defeat of Ukrainian troops.
Minsk I was a document that envisioned a ceasefire, which would be monitored by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. It also included a drawback of foreign fighters and an exchange of hostages and prisoners. The document also promised that rebel regions could have some degree of self-government.
Large-scale battles resumed after the agreement was quickly dissolved. The battle of Debaltseve saw another major defeat for the Ukrainian troops in January and February 2015.
France and Germany quickly acted to broker another peace deal. On February 12, 2015, representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the rebels signed an agreement that included a new ceasefire, the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the lines of contact between troops and rebels, as well as provisions for a political solution. The leaders of France, Germany, Ukraine and France signed a declaration supporting the agreement.
PROVISIONS REGARDING MINSK DEAL
Minsk II was a cease-fire that was monitored by OSCE. It also included a drawback of heavy weapons and foreign fighters along the line of contact. There was also an exchange of prisoners.
The document required Ukraine to give special status to separatist areas in order to allow them to establish their own police force, as well as have the right to appoint local judges and prosecutors. This was a significant diplomatic coup for Russia. It required Kyiv also to grant a broad amnesty to the separatists, and to negotiate details for holding local elections with rebel leaders.
It stated that Ukraine would not be able to regain control of the Russian border in rebel areas until they have self-rule and hold OSCE monitored local elections. This would almost certainly keep pro–Moscow rebels at power in those regions.
Another win for the Kremlin was that the document did not contain any obligations on Russia. Russia insisted it wasn’t a party and cast it as part Ukraine’s internal affairs.
Many Ukrainians resented this deal, seeing it a betrayal and threat to their national integrity. The deal was effectively stopped by widespread public outrage.
MOSCOW AND KYIV TRADE BLAMES
Although the Minsk agreement helped to end large-scale conflicts, there have been frequent skirmishes with both sides blaming one another. Although the parties reached a series of new cease-fires that were quickly broken, they did not last very long.
Russia has been accused by Ukraine of not withdrawing its troops from conflict zones. Moscow strongly denied the presence of its troops in conflict areas and pointed to the presence of Western military trainers in Ukraine.
Russia denied any military involvement in eastern Ukraine. However, it has provided political and economic support for the rebels, and granted citizenship to over 700,000.
When they last met in Paris, December 2019, the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and France pledged their adherence to Minsk, but did not make any visible progress.
MORE TALKS
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian President, has called for another four-way summit. However, the Kremlin stated that it would not be of any use unless Ukraine agreed to the agreement’s terms.
France and Germany are intensifying their efforts to broker additional four-way talks about the conflict in eastern Europe amid rising tensions due to Russia’s military buildup in Ukraine. This is seen as a way to reduce tensions in the wider crisis.
The representatives of the four countries met in Paris Jan 26 to make no progress, but they decided to meet in Berlin on Thursday with the goal of reaching a common interpretation for the Minsk agreements.
During his recent visits to Moscow, Kyiv and Moscow, French President Emmanuel Macron tried to revive the Minsk agreement. He described it as “the only way to build peace…and find a lasting political solution.”
THE PRESSURE ON UKRAINE
Officials in Ukraine are becoming increasingly critical of the Minsk agreement, despite Western demands for its implementation.
Oleksiy Danilov (secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council) told The Associated Press that the agreement was signed “under a Russian barrel” and warned that the “fulfillment of the Minsk Agreement means the country’s destruction.”
Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, claimed that Moscow wants to use the agreement to have rebel regions reintegrated in Ukraine and use them as a block to the country’s proWestern aspirations. He said: “This isn’t going to happen.”
Zelenskyy was more diplomatic, but he noted that he doesn’t like every point in the Minsk document. This comment drew a crude and taunting remark from Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Putin jokingly said, “Like it is or not, it’s up to you to bear with me, my beauty,” using a rough verse from Russian folklore. It is your responsibility to do it. It won’t work any other way.
