This suggests a new phase in the war.
It is too soon to predict where this will lead. Is President Vladimir Putin compromising his ambitions to find a way out? Some Russian forces took recent dug-in defensive positions near Kyiv to show their appreciation of the strong resistance from Ukraine.
One U.S. analyst suggested that Russian forces may be trying to keep the war going with a more narrow focus. This is not necessarily an endgame, but a way to regroup from early failures, and use the Donbas as a starting point.
Putin’s forces are suffering in many areas of the country and the United States and other nations are speeding up their transfer of arms and supplies to Ukraine. Recent reports from the U.S. have indicated that they are seeing evidence that Ukrainian defenders are launching an offensive in limited areas. They were able to attack a large Russian vessel in port off the Black Sea coast earlier this week.
The deputy chief of Russian general staff stated that his forces had achieved “main objectives” during the first phase, which Moscow called a “special military operations” in Ukraine. According to Col. General Sergei Rudskoi, Russian forces have “considerably decreased” the combat power in Ukraine and so Russian troops can “focus on the main goals of liberating Donbas.”
As a response to Rudskoi’s appeal, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian President, appealed to Russia to end the war. However he pointed out that Ukraine wouldn’t agree to any territory being given up for peace.
In his nighttime video address, he stated that Ukraine’s territorial integrity should be protected. “That means that the conditions must be fair for the Ukrainian people to accept them.”
After a month of fighting, Russian forces are still stuck in large parts of the country, including their path toward Kyiv. According to a senior U.S. defense official, Russian ground forces have not shown any interest in attacking Kyiv in recent days. However, they continue to carry out airstrikes against the capital.
“At the moment, they don’t seem to want to pursue Kyiv quite as aggressively or honestly at all, at least not for the moment.” The official spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss internal U.S. assessments regarding the war.
Since the invasion on Feb. 24, Putin’s public statements about his military goals in Ukraine have been vague. Putin stated that the goal was to “demilitarize” the government and “denazify” it. He also said that the Donbas had been under Russian-backed separatist rule since 2014. Putin positioned more than 150,000 troops at Ukraine’s borders. He then encouraged them to pursue multiple objectives rather than focusing on one strategic goal, such as Kyiv or Donbas.
The Ukrainian resistance has been far more formidable than Putin expected in the last four weeks. Russian forces have been slowened by many problems including weak logistics and flagging morale.
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, stated in Brussels that it was too early to know if Russia has changed its approach. It is clear that in every case, a Russian operation was led simultaneously by all sides and stopped by the valiant resistance of the Ukrainian people. This is what we have seen for many days.”
Stephen Biddle, Columbia University professor of international affairs and public affairs, who has studied the U.S. wars, in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere, stated that it is difficult to discern Moscow’s intentions from Friday’s statement.
He said that it was possible that they are trying to reduce their war aims to something they have already achieved. This refers to their current hold over parts of the Donbas. He said it was possible that they have decided to change their approach and not deploy combat forces in all parts of the country. They might try to regroup with a central focal point on the Donbas, making that their new starting point for an offensive that they can later expand.
Loren Thompson, a defense analyst from the Lexington Institute in Washington, suggested that Putin may be recalibrating.
In an email, he stated that Moscow may be seeking a solution to its Ukraine crisis. “Focusing its military objectives on the Donbas could be a way to scale back without admitting defeat.”
Putin is now faced with two choices: how to replenish his ground forces or attack the flow of Western weapons to Ukrainian defenders. The big question is: At what price should he escalate or broaden the war?
According to a senior U.S. official, Putin may be looking to increase the number of Russian troops in Georgia in order to support Ukraine. According to the official, it is not clear where or how many they might enter Ukraine.
The biggest shock to the war is Russia’s failures in Ukraine. Putin’s forces in Ukraine have been unable to withstand two decades of modernizations and professionalizations. Although the extent of Russian troop losses are not known, NATO estimates that 7,000- 15,000 Russian troops have died within the first four weeks. This could be as many as Russia lost in a decade in Afghanistan.
Robert Gates, the former CIA director, defense secretary, stated that Putin had “to be stupendously disappointed” with his military performance.
“Here are we in Ukraine, seeing conscripts that don’t know why they’re here, not being very trained and just huge problems command and control and incredibly poor tactics,” Gates stated Wednesday at a forum sponsored and hosted by The OSS Society. This group is dedicated to the Office of Strategic Services, a World War II-era intelligence agency.
Although it is difficult to discern battlefield trends from the outside, some Western officials believe they can see significant shifts. British intelligence has determined that the Ukrainian forces have probably retaken at least two of the towns west and east of Kyiv, according to Mick Smeath (London’s Air Vice-Marshal).
Smeath stated in a short statement Wednesday that “It is probable that successful counterattacks from Ukraine will disrupt the capability of Russian forces to organize and resume their own offensive toward Kyiv.”
Some U.S. military officers believed that Putin could quickly capture Kyiv — maybe in a few days — and that the Ukrainian military might be broken within a couple weeks.
