China has, like Russia and China, been reforming its Soviet-style military. Experts say that Xi Jinping will carefully examine the weaknesses exposed by Ukraine’s invasion and how they may apply to his People’s Liberation Army as well as his plans for Taiwan.
M. Taylor Fravel is director of security studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He said that “the big question Xi (and the PLA leadership) must be asking in the light of Russian operations in Ukraine was whether a military which has undergone extensive reforms and modernization will have the ability to execute operations that were far more complex than those Russia conducted during its invasion of Ukraine.”
Russia’s armed forces underwent a long process of reform and investment over the past ten years. The process was guided by lessons from combat in Georgia, Chechnya and Syria, as well as its annexe of Crimea. However, the Ukrainian invasion exposed flaws from the top.
Experts were collectively shocked that Russia invaded Ukraine without any preparation or focus. It was a campaign that involved multiple poorly coordinated axes and failed to successfully combine air and ground operations.
Soldiers are running out of food and their vehicles are crashing. Moscow pulled its wounded forces from Kyiv to regroup after mounting losses. The guided-missile cruiser Moskva, a guided-missile cruiser, sank last week after Ukraine claimed it had fired missiles at the vessel. Russia blamed the sinking for a fire aboard.
Euan Graham, a Senior Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Singapore, stated that “it’s very difficult to see success at any stage in the manner that Russia has prosecuted this campaign.”
Graham stated that President Vladimir Putin, who was closely involved in Russia’s military reform, didn’t appoint an operational commander until last week. He apparently expected a quick victory and misjudged the resistance from Ukraine.
Graham stated, “It’s an extremely personal war on his side.” “And I think that the expectation that this would all be easy is clearly the greatest single failure.”
Putin’s actions raise questions about whether he was given correct assessments of Ukrainian military reform and Ukrainian capabilities, or was merely told what he wanted.
Fravel suggested that Xi, another authoritarian leader, may be asking the same question.
He said that Xi may be wondering if he’s receiving accurate information about the PLA’s effectiveness in high-intensity conflicts.
China has not had a major conflict in recent years by which to measure its military prowess. However, it did fight its last significant engagement against Vietnam in 1979, according to David Chen, a senior consultant at CENTRA Technology, a U.S-based government service firm.
Chen stated, “China’s Central Military Commission needs to wake up and realize that there are many more unknown factors in such campaigns than they might have expected.”
“Russia’s experience with Ukraine has shown that even though it may appear plausible at the Academy of Military Science and National Defense University, things are much more complex in real life.”
Xi, the son and grandson of a revolutionary commander, started military reforms in 2015 after he assumed the leadership of the Central Military Commission.
The total troop strength fell by 300,000. It now stands at just under 2,000,000. Officers were also reduced by a third. Non-commissioned officers are given more responsibility to lead the field.
Yue Gang, a Beijing-based military analysts, stated that China’s military has a history of taking initiative from lower-ranking troops since its revolutionary origins. He said that the Russian forces in Ukraine have displayed weaknesses when it comes to making decisions on the frontlines.
Yue stated that Chinese soldiers should be encouraged to share their views and thoughts when discussing how to fight.
China’s seven military regions have been reorganized into five theatre commands. The number of group armies has been reduced, and the logistics system has been reorganized to improve efficiency. A higher ratio of support units to combat units was established and more emphasis was placed on mobile and amphibious units.
Xi also wanted to stop corruption in the military and went after two ex-top generals soon after he took power. One was sentenced for life, the other was executed before his case was closed.
China’s military is very opaque and not under the control of civilian judges or corruption investigators. It’s therefore difficult to determine how thoroughly it has been cleansed of such practices as selling commissions on defense contracts and kickbacks.
Xi believes that the primary mission of the military is to protect the Communist Party. He has fought back against any attempts to make the military change its loyalty to the country, just like his predecessors.
Graham suggested that Xi’s political focus may have led to him drawing incorrect lessons from the Ukraine conflict.
Graham stated that Xi Jinping would always use a political solution since he is not a military or economic specialist. “I believe the military lessons must be filtered through a political filter. I don’t think China will learn the many and obvious lessons.
China’s stated goal in its military reform is to fight and win wars against a strong enemy — an euphemism that widely refers to the United States.
China has invested huge sums of money in new equipment and has begun more realistic training exercises using force-on-force scenarios. It also sought to reform its fighting doctrine through studying American engagements with Iraq, Afghanistan, and Kosovo.
In Australia, Gen. David Berger, commandant of U.S. Marine Corps said last week that Beijing would closely monitor the conflict in Ukraine.
He said, “I don’t know what lessons they’ll learn, but… they’re focused on learning. Without a doubt because they’ve been doing this for the past 15 years.”
Berger stressed the importance of strong alliances in the Pacific to stop China’s ambitions towards Taiwan.
China claims Taiwan as its territory, and Beijing considers Taiwan a crucial part of its political and military thinking. In October, Xi reiterated the need for “reunification of nation,” and he will be achieving it.
Washington has always supported Taiwan’s political and military independence, but not promised to protect it from Chinese aggression.
Xi’s China doesn’t seem to believe Taiwan would fight for its independence, just as Putin did with Ukraine. Beijing regularly blames the problems it has with Taiwan on a small number of independence supporters and their American supporters.
The Chinese media is dominated by the state and draws from the imagined narrative that Taiwan wouldn’t be willing to fight against their Chinese counterparts.
Fravel stated that Xi might rethink his approach towards Taiwan if he sees the coordinated response of many countries to impose harsh, coordinated sanctions against Russia following its attack on Ukraine.
He said that Xi was likely to be more cautious about Taiwan than he is emboldened because of the rapid response of advanced industrialized countries and their unity.
Chen suggested that China could use the experience in Ukraine to speed up its timetable for Taiwan, perhaps by launching a smaller attack such as seizing an island outlying Taiwan as a real-world test of their military.
Chen stated that it was sensible to take the PLA’s institutions and procedures through more rigorous exercises.
“But, as the world has seen, a central leader who has a specific ambition or a short timeline could short-circuit this process in reckless fashion,”