Politics is psychology. Perhaps in another era it also pretended to be pedagogy against the extremists who had turned ideologies into sinister secular religions. But today, politics is increasingly a cauldron of emotions and perceptions. And of real problems, of course. Nevertheless, a lucid leader of the defunct UCD always warned: “What counts in politics is not what happens but what people think is happening”. And in the case of citizens with lower incomes, some of their political perceptions and social emotions are increasingly similar to those expressed by Vox voters and collected in the speeches of this party.
At the moment, the intention to vote in Spain responds more to corporate interests than to cultural antagonisms. In other words, the poor vote more to the left, in search of social protection, while a substantial part of the middle and upper classes vote to the right, in search of less fiscal pressure. And in the case of Vox, this guideline remains, albeit with nuances. Among the middle classes, the far-right wins a little more than the average vote (up to 8% of direct intention, according to the CIS, compared to 6.6% overall).
On the other hand, and unlike, for example, what happens in France, the ultra vote plummets among the working class in Spain as a whole (and falls to 3.4%). But, pay attention, among those who consider themselves poor or lower class, support for Vox is rising again and is slightly above average (around 7%). And in this segment the advantage of the PSOE over the Popular Party is also shortened.
At the moment, however, the electoral indicators do not reflect an ultra rise among the most disadvantaged sectors. And not a significant influence on his position on gender issues either. However, the perception of certain very close realities does reflect a greater proximity between the lowest incomes and Vox’s electorate, composed mainly of men from well-to-do sectors. That is to say, beyond the concern for public health or education services, the problems of coexistence and security also acquire a very significant relevance among the lowest incomes.
To begin with, perceptions about immigration are sharpened among the most disadvantaged sectors. While the actual number of foreigners in Catalonia (according to Idescat data) amounts to 21% and the population in general (data from the CEO) raises it to 36%, citizens with lower incomes carry it more beyond 41% (and up to almost 45% for young people aged between 16 and 34 with incomes below 1,000 euros). And this rate is closer to that expressed by Vox voters (47%) than by center-left voters (always below 35%).
Along with this exaggerated perception of immigration, lower incomes reflect more anxiety about public insecurity in Catalonia. Compared to 72% of all respondents who consider their immediate environment safe or very safe, this rate falls to 54% among the lowest incomes (18 points less). And at the same time, 46% of the poorest citizens confess to a feeling of insecurity in their environment, compared to 27% of all those consulted.
In this sense, the rates of concern for the lowest incomes are very similar to those expressed by Vox voters: 57% of ultra voters (only three points more than the very poor) feel safe in their environment and a 43% (three points less) confess to feeling a lot or a lot of insecurity.
Finally, when some of the insecurity factors are specified, such as drug trafficking or housing occupation, the percentages speak for themselves. For example, 49% of those consulted perceive episodes of drug trafficking as frequent or very frequent in their environment, and 51%, home occupations. However, among the lowest incomes, concern about drug trafficking rises to 64% (15 points above the average) and anxiety about housing occupations to 69% (almost 20 points more than the average ).
But what is politically significant is the similarity of these percentages to the rates recorded by right-wing and far-right voters: around 60% concern about drug trafficking and around 70% about to housing occupation. And one last point that played in France in favor of Marine Le Pen: in the face of sexual violence, 19% of the population advocates for harsher penalties, while this rate rises to 25% among lower-class citizens .
The breeding ground, then, is there, at the service of any manipulator of the dissatisfaction and anger of losers and disinherited.
