With 58 days to go until the elections, the poll war has already begun. The data on voting intentions generate moods and even serve to mobilize the electorate in a context of apparently maximum equality. Yesterday, the Valencian socialists boasted of having a survey with “very good prospects” that would give them “broad support” in the electoral process.
The organization secretary of the PSPV, José Muñoz, had already slipped the possibility of a Ximo Puig government alone the day before. This Thursday, without specifying the data, he reiterated that idea: “We aspire to have the support of the social majority to have the maximum possible freedom” when it comes to governing. And, when asked about a possible absolute majority that no poll gives, he added: “The PSPV is going all out.”
However, the PSPV is not the only one that manages surveys. Shortly after Muñoz’s words, CompromÃs sources reported the existence of a quantitative study that lowered socialist expectations and spoke of continuing in a “technical tie scenario between the conservative bloc and the progressive bloc.”
In the conclusions of this study of the GFK company with 1,362 telephone surveys, CompromÃs adds a vote estimate (which does not have a transfer of seats) in which the PP would be the force with the most votes (31-32%) followed by the PSPV (25-26%); CompromÃs (18-20%; Vox (12-14%) and Unides Podem (4-5%). Ciudadanos would stay out of Les Corts by not exceeding the electoral barrier of 5%.
The work concludes that the PP receives a large transfer of Citizens, while VOX suffers a certain stagnation. In the other part of the political spectrum, “the PSPV consolidates its stability, CompromÃs tends to grow while UP sees its electoral base reduced.” In this context, and after detecting a greater mobilization on the right, the report to which La Vanguardia has had access stresses that abstention is “drawn as one of the keys to the final result on May 28, given the level of equality that now itself exists”.
The other key is whether Unides Podem will finally enter Parliament. However, it is pointed out that “the reissue of the Botánico government would be possible if UP does not finally exceed the electoral threshold, depending on the mobilization of the electorate as a whole and the performance of the other two forces.”
To the relief of the Valencian supporters, the survey places their candidate, Joan BaldovÃ, as the second best-known leader behind Ximo Puig and as the second preference to be president of the Generalitat over an unknown Carlos Mazón. In addition, CompromÃs, according to the same study, ranks as the party that best defends the interests of the Valencian Community (22.2%) ahead of the PP (21.2%) and the PSPV (20.6%).
Perhaps aware of these data, the Syndic of the CompromÃs, Papi Robles, after knowing the desire of the PSPV to open the door to a government alone, replied: “Milagritos a Lourdes. CompromÃs is and will be fundamental in the consolidation of a new government of the Botanic”.
Despite this, in the PSPV they insist on the good data provided by their latest survey. They do not give the name of the company that has carried it out, but they do say that 1,800 interviews have been carried out and that their numbers are “very very good in Valencia”, “very good in Castellón” and “on a par with the PP in Alicante”. They also point out that, according to their data, Unides Podem remains in Les Corts above 5% and that CompromÃs would hold, with which the Botà nic would achieve the best result of the 52 seats it achieved in 2019.
