The general elections that will take place in Spain next July 23 will be momentous for European politics. The decision adopted by Spanish citizens can be decisive in the struggle for positions that takes place in the European Union, both on the political and ideological level and in that of national alliances within the complex community mechanisms.
A conservative wave has been sweeping Europe since the beginning of the Ukraine war, and Spain could be the next country with a government conditioned by an extreme right unenthusiastic about European federalism.
Santiago Abascal’s first public gesture after local elections that have given Vox the key to the autonomous communities (Valencian Community, Murcia, Extremadura, Aragon, Balearic Islands and Cantabria) has been a lightning trip to Budapest to interview the first Hungarian minister Viktor Orbán, figure of reference for illiberal movements in Europe and bridge of contact between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.
The European political future now passes through Spain. There is some uneasiness in Paris. There are worried looks in Berlin. There is everything in Brussels. An attentive smile is perceived in Rome. Laughter can be heard in Budapest. A distant curiosity can be sensed in Warsaw, since in October there will be legislative elections in Poland, also momentous.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022. After that date, the Social Democrats have only won elections in one European country: Denmark. (The victory of Labor’s Joseph Muscat on the small island of Malta should also be noted.)
The first parliamentary elections of some relief after the start of the war took place in Hungary and were a military outing for Orbán, who defeated a unitary opposition candidacy. In the opposite direction, also in April, the European liberal Emmanuel Macron defeated Marine Le Pen, accused of receiving funding from Moscow. Then, in June of last year, legislative elections were held in France and the National Front showed that it is not dead. The movement founded by Macron lost the absolute majority in the National Assembly and opened a big question mark, since the president of the French Republic cannot aspire to a third term.
In September 2022, Sweden and Italy voted with excellent results for extreme right-wing formations of the Atlanticist faith, formally distanced from the magnetism that the Russian regime exercises over certain families of European rightism.
In Sweden, the party with the most votes was the Social Democrats, but conservatives affiliated with the European People’s Party (EPP) and the extreme right gained a majority in Parliament. They rule the former with the external support of the latter. In Italy, the national unity government presided over by the technocrat Mario Draghi collapsed, the post-fascist party Brothers of Italy was the most voted. Giorgia Meloni, the day before yesterday with occasional sympathies for Putin, today fiercely Atlanticist, presides over the Council of Ministers in coalition with the declining party of Silvio Berlusconi and the diminished League of Matteo Salvini. Berlusconi is a personal friend of Putin. Salvini, an admirer.
In October 2022, a vote was taken in the vesper of Bulgaria without giving rise to a stable government. The tension between pro-Europeans and pro-Russians helps to understand the thick Bulgarian cadre. Frightened by Russian warmongering, Finland voted in March and kicked out the social democratic prime minister Sanna Marin, a prominent celebrity on Instagram, who was overtaken by the traditional conservatives and the far-right, who will govern the country in a coalition. Greece has just voted and has opted for the re-election of conservative Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who has just forced a second election at the end of June to secure the majority prize offered by the electoral law change. It will have an absolute majority.
In the last two years, every time there is a vote in a country of the Union, Manfred Weber, president of the European People’s Party, uncorks a bottle of champagne. After fortifying itself in the east of Europe and advancing through Scandinavia, the conservative wave is now expanding in the south.
Little by little, the strategy of a great alliance of the EPP with the extreme Atlanticist right (European Conservatives) is taking shape after the elections to the European Parliament scheduled for June 2024, with the aim of moving the axis of community institutions. The PPE-Conservative bloc could attract Macron – to avoid the isolation of France – and leave the Social Democrats and Greens out of the game, with the consequent isolation of the current German federal government. At the moment, the German extreme right is tied in the polls with the SPD, and is contesting second place. Ursula von der Leyen’s chances of re-election as president of the European Commission have gone downhill.
The key piece for the alliance of the EPP with the hard conservatives would be Meloni, who at the moment follows the Spanish political evolution with great interest. This week, the Italian premier recalled her friendship with Vox. The Italy system has a significant presence in Spanish strategic areas, such as energy and the media (press and private television).
The important thing is not the impact of the July elections on the European semester. The important thing is the impact of these elections on a European policy in a phase of change.
