There is no turning back. Sales of electric cars in the world will continue to rise this year, but the crucial issue is whether this type of motorization is more affordable or less. The answer is: it depends. Of the country and of the model. But in any case, you will need to arm yourself with patience because it can take up to seven years for, compared to the combustion car, the electric one to pay off in the first place. These are the conclusions of a study presented by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Let’s start by saying that 17 million electric cars will be sold this year. One in five cars sold this year will be fully or partially powered by electrons. “Tight margins, volatile battery metal prices, high inflation and the phasing out of purchase incentives in some countries have raised concerns about the pace of industry growth, but global sales data remain solids”, reads the study. The first quarter has started strongly: sales are 25% higher compared to the same period in 2023. Purchases in the first three months of the year are equivalent to those of all of 2020.
When it comes to doing the math, the picture is heterogeneous. “Electric cars are generally becoming cheaper as battery prices fall, competition intensifies and car manufacturers achieve economies of scale,” says the IEA, although it notes that in some cases – adjusting for inflation – prices stagnated or even rose slightly between 2018 and 2022.
But a distinction must be made. One thing is the initial retail price, and the other is the total cost of ownership, which takes into account use, fuel consumption, maintenance, insurance, depreciation, etc. In the first respect, internal combustion cars remain more affordable than their electric equivalents in Europe and the United States (in some European countries, such as France, the premium for going electric at the dealership can be as high as 40%), while that in China almost two-thirds of electric cars sold last year were already cheaper than their traditional equivalents. It must be said that in absolute terms we are not talking about cheap cars, because the current electric range is represented by 70% by SUVs, which are more expensive, larger vehicles with bulky batteries.
If you look at the final total cost, the International Energy Agency states that it may still take seven years for electricity to be as convenient as combustion. This is a conclusion drawn from added data, but there are many nuances to consider. Small vehicle models are already cost-effective compared to conventional ones in countries such as China. Same as in Germany (in this case for mid-range electric cars). But for SUVs to start generating savings compared to combustion ones, you have to wait almost nine years (in the German market) or eleven years (in the US). “It is a very variable period. It depends on the incentives, the year of purchase, if you have a top-up at your home”, say sources close to Aedive (Business Association for the Development and Promotion of Electric Mobility). “In the end, the more electric cars are sold, the sooner they will be affordable, in addition to benefiting the planet”, they say.
