On 12-M, a Parliament emerged with four pro-independence groups and four non-independence groups. Each segment of four covers the far right–far left spectrum. Unlike the defunct Ciutadans, they all have an identifiable ideological base. An orderly and at the same time complicated panorama, but no more than expected.
Given the strength of the different groups, I think we are going to an Island presidency, or to new elections. The Island presidency could be validated by the abstention of ERC and Junts, or by the positive vote of ERC and Commons. The position of these groups will depend on their expectations in the event of new elections. In my opinion, the ERC crisis can induce Junts to favor new elections. For the same reason, ERC should avoid this option and, therefore, today, I expect an Island presidency with the positive votes of ERC and Commons. With ERC outside the government and maybe Commons inside. It is, in my opinion, the most logical thing that should happen without emotions or bad calculations. But our history is full of them.
An Island presidency will immediately enjoy the good will of the economic and social sectors – whether they voted for it or not – who consider Catalonia’s economic progress essential. Two considerations:
1) It is interesting to re-read the electoral program of the PSC for 12-M. What will it be like to monitor it during the legislature. The program is extensive – 150 pages – and carefully thought out. It is full of general commitments, but also many specific ones. For example, a program of 4,000 public homes per year or a University Investment Plan of 100 million euros per year. If in four years the commitments have been fulfilled, it will have been an important step forward on the way to strengthening the Catalan economy.
2) We should expect a presidency implemented with ERC votes that resonates with ERC’s sensibility in matters of self-government, language, culture or economy. With regard to the economy, it should incorporate in the government program the agreements between the PSOE and ERC for the investiture of Sánchez and which are, therefore, valid agreements: the pardon – as a first step – of 20 % of the regional debt, the transfer of the research coordination funds – with a minimum of 150 million euros per year which would be essential for strengthening the Catalan research and innovation ecosystem – and the transfer of Rodalies. All are explicitly or implicitly included in the program. It is predictable, however, that in the case of Rodalies, dialogue is needed, and perhaps creativity, to approach negotiating positions on governance issues.
It is the same in a key issue: that of a unified Catalan tax administration. The position of the PSC is that it is necessary to go there and that it can be done from an undeveloped article, 204.2, of the current Statute. The article allows the creation of a joint consortium between the State and the Generalitat. The PSC program proposes to do so and adds: “The consortium must allow the collection and management of all taxes generated in Catalonia and establish the transfer mechanisms with the State”. Based on this statement, and negotiating with the State, an authentic tax agency can be built, equipped with all the relevant decision-making or information powers. Or you can make a sideboard with little substance. The political circumstances of the moment should allow going in the first direction. It would definitely be worth it.