The start of the year has taken its toll on the labor market. In an economy as seasonal as the Spanish one, the first quarter is always bad because of the end of Christmas and the low tourist season, but this time the price was higher than usual. In these three months, 139,700 jobs have been lost, while the number of unemployed has increased by 117,000 people, according to data from the Active Population Survey (EPA) published this Friday. These are clearly worse figures than those recorded in the same period in previous years, with the exception of 2020, which was heavily affected by the pandemic.
The loss of employment in this first quarter contrasts especially when compared with the same period of the previous year, when employment was barely destroyed. That was an exception that has not been repeated, not even with the support that has meant that this time all of Holy Week has been framed in March. In this way, the total number of employed remains at very high levels, 21.25 million, but there have been two quarters of decline. The truth is that at the end of 2023 a certain slowdown in employment was already noticed, although it was practically overshadowed by the good results of the year as a whole.
Two nuances can be added to these negative data. One is the total number of employed people, already stabilized at over 21 million last year, and the second is that, in seasonally adjusted terms, that is to say, excluding the calendar effect that so marks the Spanish economy, there are a growth of 0.54% in employment, which, in addition, means a consecutive upwards trajectory of 15 quarters. In this way, it will probably be in the next EPA when conclusions can be drawn as to whether a slowdown in the pace of job creation is confirmed or if this setback has been purely conjunctural due to seasonality.
The fall in employment is widespread, it happens in all sectors, but it is in services, with 56,000 less, and industry, with a loss of 38,000, where it is most evident. They are followed by agriculture and construction. Of the total of 140,000 jobs lost, the majority are in the private sector, with 114,000, while the public sector loses 25,000.
As for unemployment, the picture is similar. An increase in unemployment of 117,000 people that brings the total number of unemployed up to 2.97 million. Also in this field you have to go to the years of the pandemic to find worse figures. It is true that last year the first three months saw an increase in unemployment of 104,000 people, which was already seen as high at the time, but has now clearly been overcome.
Another negative figure is that the unemployment rate rises to 12.29%, which is half a point increase compared to the previous quarter. They remain high rates when compared to the great behavior of the labor market in the last year. One of the reasons put forward to explain this is the increase in the active population, that which works or is looking for work, which has increased by more than 400,000 people in the last year. Even if there are more jobs, this addition of additional available workers prevents the unemployment rate from falling further.
“These data are in line with what we expected”, says María Jesús Fernández, from Funcas, who focuses on the seasonally adjusted figures, in which there is indeed an increase in employment, and although he recognizes that in absolute number, the fall in jobs is higher than in previous years, a nuance that is also logical when there is a higher number of employed population.
As for Catalonia, it follows the general trend, with a loss of 17,000 jobs at the same time reaching 12,800 more unemployed than the previous quarter. In this way, the unemployment rate remains at 9.48%, almost five tenths more than the previous 8.97%. By province, the lowest unemployment occurs in Lleida, with an unemployment rate of 7.72%, compared to 8.67% in Barcelona. Girona (12.47%) and Tarragona (13.40%) are in a worse situation.
On behalf of the Spanish Government, the Minister of Economy, Carlos Cuerpo, assessed the data favorably after focusing on the seasonally adjusted data, which allows him to state that “the positive dynamics of the labor market continue”. He also stressed that temporary employment is at historic lows, with reference to the 15.7% to which this rate has been reduced. “We face the challenge of continuing to move towards full employment”, he reaffirmed, as well as reducing the unemployment rate, which he emphasized has been at a minimum since 2008.
On the other hand, the CEOE was more critical of these figures. They emphasize that employment suffers in the first quarter, although they recognize that the EPA data contrasts with the membership figures and other activity indicators, which have shown greater dynamism at the beginning of the year. “It is too early to confirm a change in trend, but there are factors that are starting to have a negative impact, such as political and regulatory uncertainty and the increase in business costs”, stated the CEOE.
