The 12-M “is a matter of two”, affirm the PSC and Junts, but the question is what ERC will do. The electoral districts draw scenarios, including the electoral repetition, but the arithmetic given by the ballot boxes is today inscrutable. The presidency of the Generalitat can become the key to the stability of the Government of Pedro Sánchez, dependent on pro-independence votes in Madrid. And the next 24 hours are crucial to wake up a bag of one million undecideds, of which 100,000 are pro-independence abstentionists.
The scope of the PSC result will be set in the metropolitan area of ??Barcelona. In 2021, the Socialists won 23 of their 33 deputies in the constituency that grants the most seats and here they have concentrated Sánchez’s forays into the campaign: Feria de Abril, Montmeló, Sant Boi, Vilanova and la Geltrú and yesterday the pavilion of the Hebron Valley The difference in seats between the PSC and Junts in Barcelona can determine the result and drown ERC. Oriol Junqueras’ bet to expand the base had the red belt as its goal, but during the process it was orange (Cs) and, after the generals, it is redder than ever. The battle launched by Sánchez against the PP and Vox is the stimulus of the voter who does not feel challenged by the Catalan elections.
The PSC started in shock due to the escape of Sánchez, but Illa, hieratic, has not changed his plan in the slightest: “lost decade”, “turn over”… The state of emergency imposed by the Prime Minister adjusted the script. The Junts candidate, Carles Puigdemont, had monopolized the story of 12-M and Sánchez reduced the focus on the former president in five days. It can be key. Together, it has not stopped scratching the intention to vote for the PSC, converted into a catch-all party, with signings such as Josep Lluís Trapero and the support of Manuel Castells, Santi Vila or Miquel Sàmper.
The future government does not only depend on the ballot box, but on the post-election pacts. Illa proclaims that “the government of Catalonia will be decided from Catalonia” and the PSOE officially lets him operate with a free hand. Discarding the absolute majorities, the candidate has shown his comfort with the reissue of the left-wing tripartite. The commons of Jéssica Albiach bluntly claim the life-saving formula also of Yolanda Díaz, which fails to make Sumar take off. In addition, the socialists have been working in Congress for five years in parallel with the ERC, something that the republicans brag about before Junts. But it is necessary to see how the ERC result fits in – the direction and the foundations – and whether its future is anchored in the left-right axis or the national axis. Pere Aragonès called elections after the door of the commons to the budget agreed with the PSC, but surveys indicate that his attempt to display management has not gone down well with the electorate.
The president has led the ranking of proposals – financing, referendum, Ministry of Catalan… -, while “the rest are talking about chairs”, insists Aragonès. He has launched attacks on Illa for the “Spanishism” of the PSC and sought unsuccessfully to go head-to-head with Puigdemont. Until the central event of the campaign, ERC had dismissed calls for unity from Junts. “We want to rebuild trust” with independence, Marta Rovira now points out. Republicans shun the pacts debate and appeal to “pride” to mobilize their electorate. On Monday, the focus will be on the Calabria street headquarters. “We will have to call each other”, they point out from Junts; and “strive so that ERC does not swing” towards the PSC.
Puigdemont has managed to get more than 12,000 people to pass through the Algiers fan zone in a mobilization that compares to the Junts pel Sí campaign of 2015. The former president has starred in rallies, press conferences and interviews, while Jordi Turull and Josep Rull they were in charge of the B campaign and the debates. Apart from the results, Turull has already won. The management celebrates the image of the “first division, compact and orderly” party and claims Jordi Pujol and Artur Mas. However, nothing hides the fact that Puigdemont’s leadership and the promise of his return to Parliament for an investiture debate have raised Junts’ expectations.
The former president depends on ERC to try to return to the Palau even if he does not add an absolute pro-independence majority with the CUP; and Sánchez depends on ERC and Junts to guarantee the stability of his Government. During the campaign, the contacts between the PSOE and Junts have been courtesy, but the tension is palpable between the interlocutors in Madrid. In parallel to the Catalan negotiation, the PSOE must approve the amnesty that would protect the return of Puigdemont and face the European campaign with the PP launched by the European right-wing wave. Illa’s victory would be a springboard for Sánchez, just as Alberto Núñez Feijóo aspires to an improvement in the result of the PP against Vox.
The leader of the PP has monopolized the campaign of Alejandro Fernández and has turned to Isabel Díaz Ayuso to stand up to Vox in his usual places such as Artós in Barcelona, ??where yesterday Santiago Abascal once again accompanied Ignacio Garriga. and, at the same time, the ultra-right can consolidate itself in Parliament by now joining the Catalan Alliance of Sílvia Orriols on the pro-independence side. The 12-M arrives without pacts, but with sanitary cords.
