Like Spain, Scotland was a hotbed of rumors over the weekend about whether its prime minister would resign or fight on. Like the PSOE, the SNP led a coalition caught by the hair, in its case because of the differences with the Greens on the direction to follow in matters of the environment, gender identity and sex change. But unlike Pedro Sánchez, Humza Yousaf has found no other alternative than to lower his arms, give up and say goodbye.
“Independence is very close – he said with unwarranted optimism at Bute House in Edinburgh, his official residence – but just like in a marathon, the last kilometer, when you see the finish line, is often the more difficult”. And for the SNP this goal is now infinitely further than it was a decade ago.
After untimely breaking the coalition with the Greens, Yousaf found himself in an impasse, with the prospect of two no-confidence motions that he would most likely lose, one directed at him personally and another (not yet deactivated) at his Government . The numbers didn’t come out without making unimaginable concessions, and he preferred to leave.
The result is that there is now a 28-day period for Holyrood (the Scottish Parliament) to elect a new Prime Minister, and if it fails to do so then a local election is called, which in theory should not have been until 2026 and is what the opposition would like. In practice, the only one who will have a chance of leading the Executive will be the candidate proposed by the SNP, and it is speculated that it will be John Swinney, a 60-year-old technocrat who was already at the head of the party between 2000 and in 2004. In any case, everything points to him heading an unstable government, marked by the decline and loss of supremacy of the nationalists after 17 years in power, more to the right than those of Nicola Sturgeon and Yousaf, less committed to the environment and gender policies.
While Yousaf’s resignation has been the icing on the cake, the SNP’s original sin was losing the September 2014 independence referendum by 55 to 45 per cent. Alex Salmond resigned and was succeeded by Sturgeon, who extended the party’s era of dominance with major electoral victories. But the foundations of the house were shaky, because the Conservative governments in London and the Supreme Court had bolted any door to sovereignty. And it remains closed.
In this way, the nationalist group corroded from within. Salmond was accused of sexual abuse and broke with his successor and former protégé Sturgeon for allowing it. After being exonerated, he formed Alba, an alternative independence party. Later, the prime minister and her husband were arrested on suspicion of embezzlement (the use for the electoral campaign of money donated for a hypothetical referendum, a case that remains open). Meanwhile, criticism of the SNP’s handling of health, education and public services in general increased, particularly as inflation and the cost-of-living crisis erupted following the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. At the same time, internal tensions exploded in a party that has a rural and an urban sector, a conservative right wing in the economic field, in favor of lowering taxes and encouraging companies, and another progressive in the social and environmental sphere, united only by the desire to achieve independence.
Sturgeon fell due to a combination of financial scandal and opposition to a trans law very similar to Spain’s, which gave enormous facilities to change gender even for minors without the need for parental consent, eventually reversed by the British Supreme Court. The battle for succession was won by Yousaf, his dolphin, but he inherited the poisoned chalice of a divided party, without a strategy for independence (which is its raison d’être), and that after seventeen consecutive years in the power cannot blame anyone for problems such as the deterioration of educational standards, transport and infrastructure, the extremely long queues for operations and treatments in public health, the increase in crime, obesity and drug addiction.
Heading into the British general election, polls have him tied with Labor (both with 32% support), but that would mean losing half or more of its 43 MPs in Westminster. To change this trend, Yousaf chose to break the coalition with the Greens, let loose and be free to turn right. He miscalculated his strength. He has hung the white flag and surrendered his weapons.
