If there is one factor that can change the forecasts for the general elections on July 23 more than any other, it is the anxiety caused by a majority of Spaniards at the prospect of a coalition government between the Popular Party and Vox. At least this is what emerges from the survey by the Ipsos consultancy for La Vanguardia, carried out between July 3 and 6. More than 60% of citizens express some (18%) or a lot (42%) concern about the possibility of an executive with far-right ministers. The contrast with the anxiety that would generate a cabinet of continuity, with the PSOE and Sumar as partners, is eloquent. In the latter case, only 26% show a lot of concern, and 15%, a lot.
The most intense concern for a government colonized by the extreme right lies mostly in the center and the left, but the restlessness reaches conservative voters themselves. In this sense, more than 81% of PSOE voters in 2019 declare themselves very or quite worried about a coalition government with the ultras, a rate that is close to 97% among those who then supported Unides Podemos.
However, 46% of former Ciutadans voters also express a visible concern in view of a government coalition between PP and Vox, and up to one in four popular voters in 2019 (a rate that rises to a 32% of those who have already decided to vote for Núñez Feijóo on July 23) share this concern.
Even one in ten Vox voters also contemplates with dismay a government alliance with the populists, as if it were one thing to launch incendiary harangues from a podium and another, quite different, to put the ultras in command of the government of Spain
On the contrary, more than 80% of those who voted for the PP or Vox four years ago contemplate with concern the continuity of the current left-wing coalition at the head of the executive and only one in six conservative voters shows indifferent or unconcerned.
Seen in retrospect, 38% of those who intend to vote now for the popular or the ultras reject the local and regional pacts signed by the two forces after the May 28 elections. And the paradox is accentuated when citizens who have decided to specifically vote for the PP on July 23 are asked about these pacts. In this case, even 44% of these voters reject the local and regional government pacts initialed with the ultra-right.
Asked what kind of agreements the forces of the conservative bloc should have signed, the majority position – supported by 65% ??of those who plan to vote for Vox or the PP on 23-J – is to reach “agreements in all territories, but without governing together in coalition”. And only 25% support the formation of coalition governments in all municipalities and regions. Obviously, when Vox voters are asked specifically, they lean six to four in favor of forming cabinets that include far-right leaders.
However, the future goes beyond pacts, so the Spanish’s concerns include other aspects more focused on management priorities. In this sense, the concerns are clear: the first, the economy (and the difficulties posed by the rise in prices), which is indicated as the most urgent issue for the next government by 31% of those consulted. Unemployment (cited by 10%), healthcare (9%) and housing (5%) appear further away. Pensions, on the other hand, are only mentioned by 1% of citizens.
According to voting records, concern for the economy is lower on the left (up to 13 points below the average among Podemos voters), and much higher on the right (ten points above). Health is a particular concern of PSOE and Podemos voters (almost 15% mention it). And concern for housing reaches the highest levels (12% of mentions) among the electorate further to the left.
From here, the survey asks citizens about the party most capable of managing the four most relevant problems: the economy, relations with Catalonia, unemployment and the everyday problems of Spaniards. And the answers again present some paradoxes in relation to electoral expectations.
This is certainly not the case in the case of the economy, in which the PP appears as the most capable of managing it, since 40% of those consulted point to this political formation (while only 31% refer to the Socialist Party) . In fact, one in four PSOE voters also shares this opinion favorable to the Popular Party. On the other hand, the voters of Unides Podemos are divided equally between the PSOE and Sumar, and Vox voters overwhelmingly choose the PP, although 40% consider that the ultras would manage the Spanish economic situation much better.
In the rest of the issues, the PSOE – or the left as a whole – registers a growing advantage over the formations of the right. Thus, although also on the subject of the fight against unemployment, the PP (35%) has an advantage over the PSOE (29%), the final balance is favorable to the left (45% against 41% of the Popular Party plus Vox) when the allusions to Sumar are also counted (15%). And the advantage is accentuated in the management of the daily problems of Spaniards: 31% point to the Socialist Party as the most capable to face them and 30%, the PP. But another 15% point to Sumar and only 8%, Vox. Eight points of advantage for the left, as up to one in five Ciutadans voters point to their forces as the most capable of alleviating the daily difficulties of the Spanish population.
However, it is in the management of a State issue as sensitive as relations with Catalonia that preferences for the PSOE skyrocket. More than 37% of those consulted point to the Socialist Party as the most suitable formation to face this challenge, while only 21% allude to the PP and 8%, Vox. In turn, Sumar collects 12% of mentions.
The paradox – if we take into account the cross-cutting criticism of the pardons of the leaders of the process and the recognized influence of this measure on the decantation of the vote – is that even 30% of Ciudadanos voters and one in seven popular voters points out the PSOE as the most suitable political formation to resolve this territorial conflict. Of course, one in ten socialist voters in 2019 prefers the PP, and a slightly smaller number, Sumar.
