The border between Israel and Lebanon works in déjà vu mode. Each escalation takes the account of another tension already seen in the area, one of the most incendiary in the Middle East, which is measured by the devastating war of 2006.
Also this summer, with the difference that bolder, more threatening frictions are sprouting in their idyllic valleys and apple farms.
How to cross the blue line – a limit that the United Nations set in 2000 to separate the two countries – and erect two tents on the Farms of Shebaa. This is what the Lebanese Shia group Hizbullah did in June in that area of ??about 14 square kilometers, which is on the Israeli side of the blue line, but which is claimed by both Lebanon and Syria. Although only one of those marquees remains today, this was the seed of a string of intersecting incidents.
In July, Hizbullah militants – some wearing masks, military uniforms or carrying the yellow flag of the political and paramilitary organization – approached the border fence four times, and from there threw stones, caused a fire and stole an Israeli surveillance camera.
In one of those actions, three activists were injured by warning shots from Israel, which has resorted to this method to keep away those who approach the fence (and in some sections, the wall) of separation.
This containment strategy is “unacceptable” for Kobi Marom, a reserve colonel in the Israeli army and an expert on security on the northern border. According to him, the Government of Benjamin Netanyahu conveys a “weakness” that has motivated Hizbullah to intensify its actions in the area, with the approval of its main sponsor, Iran.
Marom believes that Tehran is in a moment of “high confidence” thanks to its diplomatic repositioning: it has intensified relations with Russia, restored ties with Saudi Arabia and engaged in indirect negotiations on its nuclear program with the US, through the mediation of Oman.
“They want to create a kind of war of attrition along the border, which is why we have recently seen almost daily friction between Israel and Hezbollah,” adds Marom from Mount Tzfia, an elevated area that allows you to see both a quarry that serves of position in Hizbullah as towns on both sides of the border.
One of the towns is Ghajar, a small town of about 4,000 inhabitants of Alawite Arab origin that is part of the Syrian Golan Heights, captured by Israel in 1967 and annexed in 1981. Here, despite the colorful houses and curious sculptures , reflects the highest territorial tension, especially since 2000, when the UN blue line divided the community in two, giving rise to a northern Lebanese half and an Israeli southern half.
For more than two decades it was a military zone closed by Israel until, last September, the local council, with the support of the Israeli defense, built a fence around the town, lifted the restrictions and converted the population isolated from Ghajar in a tourist spot.
This fence is considered by the United Nations Interim Force for Lebanon (Unifil) to be a “continuous violation” by Israel, which has also breached its international commitments by regularly flying over Lebanese skies.
The recent renewal of the fence has only revived Hizbullah’s accusations about an Israeli attempt to annex the entire town.
Despite the context – which includes the launch of a Hizbullah anti-tank missile at Ghajar on July 6, which was met with Israeli artillery fire – residents say all is calm in the village, a credible claim given the quiet of the streets. However, beyond kindness, few dare to express their thoughts in the press.
The one and only, Jaber Khatib. A 30-year-old doctor who, while waiting for Israel to validate his degree obtained in Syria, works in a family pastry shop. He says that he is not afraid of tensions because “I lived the war of 2006 when I was a child” and, “for now, the situation is calm”.
“There is a war of rhetoric between Israel and Hezbollah. I don’t know what will happen in the future. For three weeks, the situation has been noticeable in the village with a drop in tourism”, adds Khatib, while conveying his desire that “there be peace”.
The dialectical war that Jaber indicates has intensified through actions. The leader of Hizbullah, Hassan Nasrallah, has again called for the “liberation” of the town of Ghajar and the resolution of other disputed areas, and has made it clear that they will respond to “any stupid act”: ” Israel occupies parts of Lebanese territory and has the bar to talk about Hezbollah’s provocations,” he says. He also predicts a “path of collapse, fragmentation and disappearance” of Israel following the seven months of protests against judicial reform and other policies of the far-right coalition.
Marom, like some other experts, believes that the internal Israeli crisis, with more than 10,000 voluntary reservists who have been planted, is seen by Hizbullah as “a great opportunity for the situation to escalate”.
However, the Reuters agency has reported that, in closed-door meetings, officials from Iran, Hezbollah and Palestinian militias (which also operate in southern Delhi are cited for firing 36 rockets north of Israel on April 6) have recommended not having “direct interference” in the Israeli crisis to avoid giving Netanyahu a scapegoat.
And another alternative is that Hizbullah’s agenda seeks the objective of strengthening itself in Lebanese internal politics in the face of the reigning power vacuum, with the election of a president unresolved since October 2022.
“The more Hezbollah can demonstrate that it is powerful and irrelevant, the more it will feel that its chances of getting away with it increase,” Professor Lina Khatib, director of the SOAS Middle East Institute in London, told the BBC.
In the psychological battle, Israel is not far behind, with shows of strength such as visits by President Isaac Herzog and military leaders to the border area; or statements such as that of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Eli Cohen, in the Saudi newspaper Elaph on Sunday, in which he warns that Israeli military power “can return Lebanon to the stone age”.
Despite the fact that neither Israel nor Hizbullah would have any intention of starting a war now, the fear of a major conflict is growing. In She’ar Yashuv, a predominantly Jewish community four kilometers from the border, emergency teams say they are “prepared” for any eventuality.
“We feel safe, but in five minutes everything can change and we are at war. It could happen today or a year from now, but I’m sure it will happen”, predicts Gideon Hariri, deputy head of emergencies at the site.
And he doesn’t lack reason. In this volatile 112 kilometer border with fertile apple trees, history has shown that any miscalculation can start a new escalation of the conflict.
