On August 23, India made history by becoming the fourth country to land on the lunar surface (after the United States, the former Soviet Union and China) and the first to do so in strategic lunar south pole. This milestone contrasted with the failure of the Russian Luna-25 mission which, a few days earlier, had crashed during its attempt to reach this region of the Moon in the first place.
Beyond their scientific objectives, these missions highlight political and economic interests. On the one hand, states see space more and more as a tool to project a certain image of the country (a clear example is the space program of the Arab Emirates, which took advantage of the arrival of its satellite on Mars, in 2021, to launch a message of modernity and equal rights between women and men). On the other hand, what has been called the new economy of space is gradually taking shape, an area for the development of knowledge and generator of companies, jobs and wealth.
A plethora of new services
Currently, services that we have all incorporated into our daily activities are provided from satellites located in Earth orbit. From a mobile phone, anyone can make use of positioning, access meteorological data or even view high-definition images of every corner of the planet.
Other services are also available, less known and for professional use, which for example allow you to know which parts of a crop are less hydrated and require watering, or the location of a herd and what is its state of health.
Likewise, public administrations can monitor the state of reservoirs and rivers, monitor the progress of desertification or the rise of ocean levels, or improve the management of spaces and natural resources. And constellations of small satellites are being deployed that will provide a multitude of services, such as communications and broadband internet access from anywhere in the world, by obtaining and managing data from virtually any equipped device with a sensor.
The geopolitics of space
All this sets up a scenario in which space becomes an engine of the economy. For example, the Space Foundation, a non-profit organization that keeps statistics on space, estimated the business volume driven by the space economy by 2022 at more than 500 billion euros. Some sources, such as the Bank of America, predict that this figure will double by the end of the decade. Naturally, in this context states and companies are positioning themselves to take advantage of the opportunities that present themselves.
But today the scenario in space is much more complex than what it was when only two superpowers competed to dominate it. There are several countries that have space agencies with the capacity to place satellites in Earth orbit or to explore other worlds. There are also more and more states that are creating modest space agencies whose aim is not to send ships or astronauts into space, but to activate the space ecosystem in the territory by encouraging the creation of new companies or collaboration between the public and private sectors. And large aerospace corporations have an ever-increasing presence, with powerful capabilities and a high level of flexibility in their decisions.
The regulation of space
The international space laws were drawn up in 1967 (with the so-called Outer Space Treaty). They corresponded to a totally different context from the current one and today they seem clearly insufficient to regulate the use of space.
Specifically, the treaty explicitly prohibits the installation of weapons on celestial bodies, such as the Moon or Mars, but does not mention the orbits of these bodies or interplanetary space. As a result, the Earth’s orbit is unprotected from the risk of militarization. Countries such as the United States, Russia, China or India have tested satellite destruction systems, and aggressive technologies are also being developed that allow satellite communications to be intercepted or directly rendered useless.
Under the current legal framework, no one can claim sovereignty over a celestial body (including planets, moons or asteroids). However, the use that can be given to these bodies is not regulated. Thus, in 2015, the United States approved national legislation that gives legal cover to American companies that exploit mineral resources in space. In a similar vein, Luxembourg established, two years later, a very similar regulatory framework, with the aim of attracting aerospace companies to its territory.
The domain of space
The great dominator of the space game board is the United States, which currently has no rival either in terms of capabilities or budget. In its orbit move other countries that have collaboration agreements with the Americans and that, in some way, are considered allies (this is the case of Canada, the European Union, Japan, and even all India).
On the other side of the board, China is positioned as the second power in space. And as a result of the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions on Russia, this country’s space program has come even closer to China’s. Thus, the two nations have announced an agreement to install a lunar base, and are expected to develop a joint program for future Earth orbital stations.
The game of space geopolitics has only just begun. A game that will be played in different leagues, and in which space powers, more modest nations, large corporations and medium and small companies will move. A game that will generate technological advances and wealth, but which, as usual, is not without risks.
