Europeans have lost much of the confidence they had in a Ukrainian victory. Two years after the last Russian invasion, only 10% believe that Ukraine will be able to recover the occupied territories. Those who think Russia will prevail are now twice as many. The majority opinion, in any case, is that this war will end at a negotiating table.
The latest survey by the European Council of Foreign Relations (CERE), and which La Vanguardia publishes exclusively, reflects the pessimism and weariness of European public opinion with a war that seems far from being resolved.
The first poll, carried out in June 2022, four months after the Russian invasion, already showed the restlessness of the majority about a long conflict. Then the dominant opinion, although by a small margin, called for a quick solution. Peace was a priority, even if Ukraine lost territory. Those who, on the contrary, defended that Ukraine should fight to the end were the majority in the second survey, carried out last year. For them, there was no possible compromise with the Kremlin, especially in view of the Ukrainian developments. They also understood that Europe and the United States had to support the Ukrainian cause with arms and money without cracks and for as long as necessary.
Now, this enthusiasm has sunk. The failure of the counteroffensive last spring and summer has convinced many Europeans that the Ukrainian army will not be able to defeat the Russian, which is much more numerous and better armed. In the last battle of Avdiivka, Russia had about 50,000 men. This force outnumbered the Ukrainian defense 8 to 1. The Kremlin has also built a major military industry and has gained very powerful allies, such as India, China and Iran, who buy it oil, help it circumvent sanctions and, as is the case of the Islamic Republic, provide it with the drones that allow it to maintain air supremacy.
The latest CERE survey, carried out in twelve EU countries in January, hardly gives Ukraine any option to recover lost territory. 10% believe that the war will not be won, 20% say that the winner will be Russia and 37% believe that an agreement will be reached. This means that, at best, Ukraine will be divided, as is Cyprus.
Ivan Kastrev and Mark Leonard, authors of the study, warn that European leaders must define what they consider a victory for Ukraine and on what basis a “sustainable peace” can be established. “Many European leaders – they argue – are aware that the Ukrainians have a very difficult time reaching a satisfactory agreement from a militarily weak position. And the Europeans will only have the moral right to advise Ukraine on its military aspirations if they have delivered the weapons and the money they promised.” In any case, “the only way to convince Ukraine that there is no other way out than to accept territorial sacrifices is to offer it security guarantees and EU integration”.
Ukraine has open paths to the European Union and NATO, but no one hides that they will be long and difficult.
“Wars – as Krastev and Leonard explain – take place on the battlefield, but they usually end at the polls.” The examples of Vietnam in the United States and Algeria in France are very clear. The results of the European elections in June and, especially, the American elections in November can be decisive for the future of Ukraine. If Trump returns to the White House – a fact that 56% of Europeans see as something disappointing – it is very likely that he will leave Ukraine to its fate. In this case, the Europeans will have to decide whether to maintain support or force a deal.
Fatigue is evident in many countries and, paradoxically, it is more noticeable in the neighbors of Ukraine itself. In Poland, Hungary and Romania, many more people see Ukrainian refugees as a problem than an opportunity. In Sweden, Spain and Portugal it is the other way around.
Tensions over the import of Ukrainian agricultural products into the EU have been more intense in eastern countries. The solidarity of the first days of the war, when the borders were opened to refugees, is no longer so evident.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has always said that time is on Russia’s side and that, in the end, Europe will have no choice but to accept its terms. He calculates that the longer the calendar runs, the worse it will be for the Ukrainians on the ground and the worse it will be for the European leaders, who are under pressure from their own voters.
Most respondents also do not have much confidence that the EU can, on its own, effectively help Ukraine. The skepticism, in this sense, is very noticeable, despite the fact that Brussels has just given the green light to 50,000 million euros in economic and military aid. This package, along with the $60 billion promised by US President Joe Biden, should allow Ukraine to hold out for at least another year.
The fundamental question, however, remains the same: to what end? To defeat Russia or to force a negotiation from a more balanced position?
Brussels doesn’t have an answer and won’t until after the June elections. The same thing happens in Washington. You have to wait for the November polls.
This wait is faced with great anxiety. Most Europeans do not want Putin to get away with it, let alone with the help of a reborn Trump in the White House. There is a majority opinion in favor of maintaining or increasing aid to Ukraine in case the US withdraws.
Only in Austria, Romania, Italy, Hungary and Greece is the majority in favor of withdrawing when the United States does.
Very few, in any case, are sure of victory and hence the inclination to seek a negotiated exit. However, at the same time, many consider that the future of Europe is at stake and that the EU has an inescapable responsibility. Citizens are aware of the challenge and the limitations.
The coming months, as the survey warns, will be complicated. “A Russian victory – Krastev and Leonard maintain – will not bring peace. And if the price of ending this war is to turn Ukraine into a no man’s land, it will be a defeat for Kyiv and for all of Europe. In the event that there is a negotiation, it will be important for Ukrainian and Western public opinion to know what is on the table and what is not. What is not negotiable is the democratic and pro-Western future of Ukraine.”
