If surveys are essentially used to detect trends, the latest CIS survey should put GNP on alert. The Research Center (CIS) grants, for the first time, a victory to EH Bildu in the Basque elections on the 21st and, above all, estimates an upward trend for the Abertzale coalition, faced with a loss of support for to the GNP.
The organization led by José Félix Tezanos gives Bildu a vote estimate of between 34.2% and 35.1%, while it leaves the Jeltzales slightly below, with between 32.6% and 33 .5% The CIS does not this time make a projection of the seats they would get, but draws attention to how the situation has turned around in relation to the previous results, published on April 1.
In that survey, whose field work was carried out between March 18 and 22, the CIS gave the Jeltzales an estimate of 36.1%, compared to 33% in the case of Bildu. This meant for the Basque nationalists between 30 and 31 seats, compared to the 28-29 that the survey attributed to the pro-independence parties. Now, with field work carried out between April 1 and 8 and 4,000 interviews, the Abertzale coalition would achieve an increase of between 1 and 2 points, compared to a drop in the case of the Jeltzales of around 3 points, from so that the balance would lean in favor of the candidacy led by Pello Otxandiano.
It is not easy to translate these percentages into seats, since a vote in Bizkaia is not worth the same as one in Álava (25 seats are distributed to each territory, regardless of its population). However, a hypothetical Bildu victory in percentage of the vote would most certainly mean a victory in seats, since the Abertzale coalition is stronger, in relative terms, in Gipuzkoa and Álava, the territories in which the translation of votes into seats add more
Regarding the estimate for the rest of the formations, the PSE would remain in third position with an estimate of between 13.3% and 14.1%, a higher percentage compared to the previous survey (13.1 %); the PP would be around 7%, a little less than in the previous one (7.7%); Sumar would be between 3.1% and 3.6% (3.7% in the previous one), and Podemos would reach 3.1%-3.2% (2.5% in the previous one). Vox would also grow, going from an estimate of 1.7% to 2.7%-3%.
Last week, the CIS poll served to calm the spirits of the Jeltzal ranks, as it awarded them a victory in votes and seats, and in fact gave them practically the same representation as they have today (31 MPs), by the head one less seat. This new edition of the CIS again equalizes the pulse between Jeltzales and Abertzales as much as possible, which would achieve an unprecedented boost and go from their current 21 seats to close to 30.
Taking into account the micro-data, the poll also shows a disturbing trend for PNB: vote transfers to Bildu are significant. Taking the 2020 elections as a reference, marked by high abstention, the PNB would have a vote loyalty of 62.4%, while 9.1% of those who voted would now opt for Bildu, 2.3% for the PP and 17.9% are undecided. As for the Abertzale coalition, it would have a vote fidelity of 88.2% and only 6% of those who voted for them are undecided. In addition, they would receive 9% of votes from PNB, 31.9% from Podemos or 10.4% from abstention.
In any case, the most decisive part of the campaign must arrive and the percentage of undecideds remains very high, 19.3%, according to the CIS.
