The episode of anomalously high temperatures for this time of year (and with records more typical of late June or early July than April) will reach its peak this Thursday (27th) and tomorrow Friday (28), when 32º C will be exceeded in a large part of the center and south of the peninsula.
The thermometers will even be at 38ºC and 39º C in the Guadalquivir valley, a level unknown at this time. The current warm episode “will be the most intense in April in the Iberian Peninsula since there are records”, says the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet). “We are heading towards the warmest days of this episode”, warns Rubén del Campo, spokesman for the state agency. “The 38º C expected in the south of the Peninsula are unprecedented in the Aemet network. We are talking about an extremely warm episode still in April”, he emphasizes.
Although, according to Aemet, “it is unlikely that it will reach 40º C”, it would not be surprising if it happened, given the rise in thermometers. “It cannot be ruled out that in some meteorological station in the interior of Andalusia, especially in the countryside of Córdoba and Seville, 40º C could be reached on Friday”, says the physicist and meteorologist Miguel Ãngel Viñas. “The forecast model shows us 39º C in this whole area, but it is not ruled out that at some point it could reach 40º C”, adds this publicist, who is “surprised by an episode of this magnitude so early” , Viñas adds.
Since Tuesday, there have already been very high temperatures for this time of year in most of Spain. The values ​​were between 7 and 12 degrees above normal in almost the entire Peninsula, except for the northern third. Experts predict an avalanche of record high temperatures, something that already began to be seen on Tuesday. Córdoba airport, for example, reached 35.1º C, a record that exceeds the previous record of 34º C, from April 2017. And the 35º C that was measured in Jerez de la Frontera (in its airport) exceed the 33.6º C of the previous record recorded in April 1997.
In the Valencian Community, temperatures exceeded 36º C; for example, in Xà tiva and Carcaixent, both in the province of Valencia, they reached 36.2ºC.
Since Monday, April 24, there has been the entry of a very warm and dry subtropical air mass. The situation of atmospheric stability and the strong insolation also contribute to reaching such high temperatures. José Miguel Viñas emphasizes that “at its origin, the air has gained more temperature than would be normal due to its contact with the North Atlantic Ocean”, which shows very prominent anomalies. “And this means that a heat episode in the spring, which is not unusual, turns into an episode of extreme summer heat.”
In Córdoba, the absolute maximum so far in April is 34º C (2017); in Seville, 36.4º C, and in Murcia, 37º C. And it is likely that 39º C will now be measured. That would be five degrees more.
Aemet predicts that it is possible that April 2023, driven above all by this warm episode, will be “one of the two warmest Aprils in the historical series (1961)”.
“This episode of high temperatures will be the most intense experienced in April in the Iberian Peninsula since there are records”, sums up Rubén del Campo. The days that make up the period between April 25 and 30 “could be the warmest these days since at least 1950”, he adds.
The other outstanding factor is “the lack of rain”. From the 1st to the 23rd of April, 12 liters per square meter had been collected in Spain, which means a reduction of 75% of the normal precipitation. The negative record of April 1995 would be surpassed, when 23 liters per square meter fell. Now it does not seem likely that this figure will be reached.
In addition, “in the next few days it will barely rain, although during the weekend “there will be precipitation in the northern third of the Peninsula”. In short: it is quite likely that April 2023 will end up as the driest month of the historical series in Spain.
“We have never faced temperatures like the ones we are experiencing and will experience”, emphasizes José Miguel Viñas, author of Nuestro reto climática. Viñas states that despite the fact that “this episode is in agreement with global warming, we did not think that an event like this should occur”.
Rubén del Campo highlights, commenting on the possible relationship of this fact with climate change, that “extreme phenomena linked to high temperatures have become more frequent and intense, and that intense heat appears earlier”.
Each weather episode must be analyzed in detail, but judging by the “intensity and its early nature”, the current one fits into what is being observed that causes climate change, we remember.
Recently, Spain has already recorded very warm situations typical of midsummer in spring. And clear examples of this are the episodes of May 2015 and 2022; both were extraordinary and exceeded 40 degrees in points in the south and east of the Peninsula.
It is most likely that 32º C-34º C will be exceeded in the southern half of the peninsula, and that 37º C will be reached in the Guadalquivir valley. It cannot be ruled out that in the Guadalquivir valley, specifically in the provinces of Córdoba and Seville, it will reach 39 degrees on Thursday. It will be the warmest day of the episode overall. On Friday, the maximum will continue to rise in the eastern half of the peninsula and the Balearic Islands. In the Guadalquivir valley the temperatures would be similar to those of Thursday. In the southern half they would be around 32ºC-34º C, and it is likely that they will exceed 30ºC-32 C in the Ebro valley and inland Mallorca.
On Saturday there will be a thermal drop in large areas, but the heat will still be very intense in the eastern third of the Peninsula and in the Balearic Islands.
Sunday and Monday the temperatures will continue to drop; but in the central area and also in the southern half, the warm atmosphere will continue for the season. It is possible that from Tuesday the temperatures will rise again and the atmosphere will continue to be very warm in almost all of Spain throughout the coming week.
