Turkeys might not be able fly far. However, their prices can skyrocket — as well as the cost of holiday staples such cranberry sauce or pie filling.
Due to strong consumer demand, and labor shortages, the Thanksgiving table has not been spared from the high price inflation that is prevalent elsewhere within the economy.
According to the American Farm Bureau, a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 with sweet potatoes, rolls and a vegetable tray, with a pie with cream, will run $53.31 this holiday season, an increase of 14% over last year. This is an unusually high price. It’s an unusual spike. The annual cost estimate for 2015 had been declining since 2015.
“Inflation is real. Everyone is saying it. Everyone feels it,” stated Jay Jandrain, Butterball CEO and President. “Whether it be labor, transportation, packaging materials or energy to fuel the plants, everything costs more,” Jay Jandrain, President and CEO of Butterball.
Butterball, a North Carolina-based company that supplies about one-third of the Thanksgiving turkeys, was unable to attract workers earlier in the year. This led to delays in processing. The turkeys waited and grew, increasing the already high costs of soybean feed and corn.
Jandrain stated that labor shortages have decreased and that the company was able secure enough trucks so it could get its turkeys to supermarkets. There will be roughly the same amount of whole turkeys this year as last, but smaller birds.
Jandrain stated that the good news is that everyone loves leftovers from Thanksgiving, and will have more this year.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that the average wholesale price of a frozen turkey of 8 to 16 pounds in mid-November was $1.35 per kilogram, an increase of 21% over a year ago. Weather conditions also made it difficult to find labor for other staples. Due to drought in California and heavy rains in Illinois, pumpkin crops were less productive. Nielsen IQ reported that fresh pumpkins averaged $2.72 per pound in early November. This is a 5% increase over a year earlier. Green beans prices rose 4%, while canned cranberry sauce rose 2.5%.
Ryanne Bowyer, a Dallas resident, typically buys turkey within a few days of Thanksgiving. She signed up for Ibotta this year to save money on turkey by scanning receipts. This app allows you to scan receipts and get a free turkey, potato, corn, soup, gravy, and cornbread from Walmart.
Bowyer laughed and said, “If that didn’t happen, the plan would have been to just go to the woods together with my wife to grill wieners.”
Many retailers are still facing cost pressures and have cut back on their Thanksgiving promotions. According to Mark Jordan, executive director of Leap Market Analytics which monitors the poultry and livestock markets, the U.S. had the fewest turkey-related specials in the week leading up to Thanksgiving.
Jordan stated that there will be discounts but the extreme giveaways will be less frequent.
Diana Jepsen, a retired woman from West Hartford, Connecticut said that she typically pays $1 per pound for her Thanksgiving Turkey. Her 23-pound Butterball cost $1.50 a pound this year. She still believes that it’s a great value considering the recent price rises she has seen in beef and chicken.
Jepsen will be celebrating Thanksgiving with 21 of her family members, including her mother, who is 96 years old. Her Cuban-American family marinates the turkey with a mojo Criollo sauce. George Jepsen is Jepsen’s husband and former Connecticut attorney general. He cooks the turkey according to his mother-in law’s recipe. She said that other staples like black beans and yucca have not seen an increase in their prices. Jepsen also has boxed stuffing available for sale.
She said, “We believe it’s still a good deal to be able to service that many people.”
Jandrain stated that higher turkey prices may continue into 2022. Both feed costs and labor costs are still high.
This could be a boon for the turkey industry, which has struggled for years to find parts such as turkey breasts or deli meat. According to Jordan, the industry killed 159 million turkeys during the first nine months in 2021. This was the lowest amount of turkey per capita since 1987. Higher turkey prices could encourage farmers next year to raise and slaughter more turkeys.
Some shoppers were most concerned about availability this year, rather than price. Lauren Knapp, a Rochester economist, purchased two frozen turkeys weeks before she would have otherwise because she was worried about scarcity. Knapp plans to cook a Thanksgiving dinner and another meal for her family in December.
Knapp said that friends in D.C. had suggested a turkey Thanksgiving, as they couldn’t find turkey anywhere. She was relieved that turkeys were readily available, even though she has been buying low-sodium turkey slices to go with her sandwiches this year.
