Contrary to popular belief there was no significant migration in the U.S. during this pandemic.
The U.S. Census Bureau released new figures Wednesday showing that the percentage of people who moved in the last year dropped to its lowest level in 73 years. This contradicts popular belief that people move out of cities to escape COVID-19 restrictions, or to seek more idyllic lifestyles.
Thomas Cooke, a Connecticut demographic consultant, joked that “millennials living in New York City don’t make up the universe.” “My millennial daughter’s friends who lived in Williamsburg, many of them returned home. Although it felt like the world was suddenly shifting, in reality this is not surprising.”
According to the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement, 8.4% of U.S. residents reported that they had moved in the last year.
Comparatively, only 9.3% of U.S. citizens moved between 2019 and 2020. This figure was 17% three decades ago.
The COVID-19 pandemic not only created shelter-in-place restrictions but also forced people to put off life-cycle events like marriages and having children, which often leads to moving. William Frey, a senior fellow with The Brookings Institution, stated that the U.S. has been experiencing a decline in migration for decades.
Frey stated that “These numbers indicate a lot people didn’t move” or moved at a slower pace. But it’s a long-term trend.”
However, that doesn’t mean nobody moved. There was a slight increase in mobility patterns in the last year, but it was more in long-distance moves from one state to another, rather than within a single state or county. Frey suggested that the pandemic may have prompted the 4.3 million people to move to another state.
Andrew Beveridge, a demographer expert, used data from change-of-address to show that although people left New York City, especially in wealthy neighborhoods, these neighborhoods recovered their numbers months later. Beveridge stated that he is not surprised by the decline in migration across the country.
“The financial crisis was the same. Nobody moved. Nobody married. Beveridge, a Queens College sociology professor and the Graduate School of the City University of New York’s University Center of the City University of New York sociology professor, said that nobody had children. “All demographic changes sort of screeches to an halt.”
Another factor that has contributed to Americans staying put is an aging population. This is because older people are less likely than younger ones to move.
Mary Craigle, Bureau Chief for Montana’s Research and Information Services, stated that she believes the boom in remote work due to COVID and the economic shock are the main reasons.
Since 1985, when only 20% of U.S. residents moved, mobility has been in decline. This was a time when Baby Boomers were young adults starting careers, marrying, and starting families. According to Frey’s analysis last year, millennials are now in the same age bracket as their Baby Boomer counterparts in the mid-1980s. They are trapped in place because of high housing costs and underemployment.
The decades-long decline in U.S. mobility has been attributed to technological advances in transportation and telecommunications. People can now work remotely, get education and visit their family and friends. According to Cooke, a professor emeritus of the University of Connecticut, highways allowed people to travel 50 miles (80 km) to their work locations without needing to travel closer to work.
He said that the U.S. has been less mobile over the years due to increased economic insecurity.
American mobility has been slowing down as a result of stagnation in U.S. population dynamics. The 2020 census shows that the U.S. experienced a 7.4% increase in population over the past decade, which is the lowest rate of growth since 1930 and 1940. The Census Bureau earlier this week revealed that the U.S. population center moved just 11.8 miles (19 km) in the last 100 years.
