There is no going back. Sales of electric cars in the world will continue to rise this year, but the crucial issue is whether this type of motorization is affordable or less. The answer is: it depends. Of the country and the model. But in any case, you will have to be patient because it can take up to seven years for the electric car to pay off the first time compared to the combustion car. These are the conclusions of a study presented by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
We start by saying that 17 million electric cars will be sold this year. One in every five cars sold this year will be powered entirely or partially by electrons. “Tight margins, volatile battery metal prices, high inflation and the phasing out of purchasing incentives in some countries have raised concerns about the pace of industry growth, but global sales data remains strong.” ”, reads the study. The first quarter has started strongly: sales are 25% higher compared to the same period in 2023. Purchases in the first three months of the year are equivalent to those of all of 2020.
When it comes to doing the math, the picture is heterogeneous. “Electric cars are generally becoming cheaper as battery prices fall, competition intensifies and automakers achieve economies of scale,” says the IEA, although it notes that in some cases – adjusting for inflation – prices stagnated or even increased slightly between 2018 and 2022.
But you have to distinguish. One thing is the initial retail price and the other is the total cost of ownership, which takes into account use, fuel consumption, maintenance, insurance, depreciation, etc. In the first aspect, internal combustion cars remain more affordable than their electric equivalents in Europe and the United States (in some European countries, such as France, the premium for being electric at the dealership can reach up to 40%), while In China, almost two-thirds of electric cars sold last year were already cheaper than their traditional equivalents. It should be said that in absolute terms we are not talking about cheap cars, because the current electric range is represented by 70% by SUVs, which are more expensive, larger vehicles with bulky batteries.
If we examine the final total cost, the International Energy Agency states that it may still take seven years for electric to be as convenient as combustion. This is a conclusion drawn from aggregate data, but there are many nuances to consider. Small vehicle models already pay off compared to conventional ones in countries like China. Same as in Germany (in this case for mid-range electric cars). But for SUVs to start generating savings compared to combustion ones, we have to wait almost nine years (in the German market) or eleven years (in the American market).
Arturo Pérez de Lucía, general director of Aedive (Business Association for the Development and Promotion of Electric Mobility), defends that the electric car is already competitive in Europe compared to the combustion car, essentially thanks to the weight that fuel has in the final cost .
“If we talk about the total cost of ownership, the 2023 Car Cost Index, which LeasePlan has been carrying out for years in 22 European countries, from segment B to segment E, has already revealed that electric vehicles, in almost all segments and European countries, are the same price or cheaper in terms of TCO (total cost of ownership) than gasoline or diesel cars,” he says.
The general director of Aedive explains it this way. “The main reason is that fuel costs represent 15% of the TCO in an electric car. A percentage that rises to 23% and 28% in the case of gasoline and diesel, respectively. By segments or size, BEVs “Compact (pure electric) cars were more cost-competitive than ICE (internal combustion) models in 18 of 22 European countries.”
Beyond the debate, it seems clear that the electric car, no matter what the cost, cannot go in reverse.