Inflation in November stood at 3.2%, three tenths less than the previous month, confirming the two elements that were already pointed out with the advance data. On the one hand, pensions will rise by 3.8% in 2024, given that the average of interannual inflation from December 2022 to November of this year is used for the calculation; and on the other, that prices are moderating after a year that started with a CPI of 6% and that has had many ups and downs afterwards.
The moderation of inflation is based on the fall in the prices of fuel and tourist packages and food, which increased less than in the same month last year. Specifically, they increased by 9%, which is half a point less than the previous month and the second consecutive month in which the percentage fell below 10%. A gradual slowdown after food prices exceeded 16% in February of this year. Moderation is evident, but slow.
The INE indicates that what most influences this evolution “is the decrease in the prices of bread and cereals and milk, eggs and cheese, compared to the increases of the previous year, and that the prices of meat have increased less than in November 2022.”
On the other hand, olive oil remains intractable, with a price increase of 67%. If we examine the month-on-month basis, that is, in relation to October of this year, the increase is 4.7%, and if we go further, to February 2021, then the increase reaches 164%. An olive oil that has a weight of 0.5% in the CPI basket.
Prices also rose, but by a far distance, for rice, legumes and vegetables, and confectionery products, with 17%.
If 2022 was the year of great inflation, the current year has been one of hectic deceleration, reaching its minimum in June, when it was below 2%, the objective sought by the ECB, and then rising again to October, and with November, marking a moderation to the aforementioned 3.2%.
Regarding core inflation, which does not take into account energy or fresh food, it slows down significantly. They are seven tenths less than in October, reaching 4.5%. A good data that confirms the progressive deceleration of this rate, which is the one considered most stable, and which, therefore, indicates the underlying trends. In this sense, it is the lowest since April of last year.
“Disinflation is already unstoppable with only one doubt, the impact that the reversal of the anti-inflation measures that the Government must decide before the end of the year will have,” says Raymond Torres, from Funcas. Measures that will be partially and gradually withdrawn, which may mean a rise of eight tenths in inflation next year, meaning that the average for 2024 may be very similar to this year’s, around 3.5%. .
For his part, Manuel Hidalgo, professor of Economics at the Pablo de Olavide University, agrees that “we are in a phase of price moderation that, barring any notable surprises, will be maintained and continue. We must see how some variables develop , like salaries”.
The November data is used to set the indexation of pensions for next year. In this way, the increase of 3.8% is established, with which the average retirement pension will increase by 734 euros in the total for the year.
The Minister of Inclusion and Social Security, Elma Saiz, has stated that “thanks to the pension reform approved in 2021, with the contribution of social agents and political parties that voted in favor, for the third consecutive year the Government of “Spain protects the purchasing power of our pensioners.”
On the other hand, the Ministry of Inclusion announced this Tuesday the increase in widow’s pensions with family responsibilities up to 14%, the minimum pensions between 5 and 7%, and non-contributory pensions by 6.9%.
