Vox’s results for the next 28M in the Valencian Community are unknown. Will they come close to the results of the general elections, where they were the third political force with 468,134 votes and 18.6% of the ballots, or will they come closer to the results of the municipal elections, where they reaped 7 in important cities such as Valencia and Alicante? 28% and 6.41% of the votes? If you look at the data for the general elections of November 2019, the change in the Generalitat has many signs of being a reality. Otherwise, with a result similar to the 10% that they achieved in the last regional ones, Carlos Mazón will have a very difficult time being the next head of the Consell.
As the candidate of the far-right formation, Carlos Flores, explained in his recent interview with La Vanguardia, although Mazón believes he is the captain of the Titanic and only thinks about governing alone, he will need Vox if the left does not reach the 50 deputies that mark the absolute majority in the Valencian Parliament.
The PSPV survey –very optimistic for the interests of Ximo Puig- was so striking that it left Santiago Abascal’s men out of Les Corts Valencianes. The Socialists were quick to point out that the 4.7% declared vote for the extreme right formation was explained by the hidden vote that this formation still has. Other polls such as the one commissioned by Podemos to the prestigious 40dB gave it 12.7% and a CompromÃs study with GFK data also raised it between 12 and 14%.
Private surveys are somewhat more positive for the green brand and the latest ones published (Sigma Dos, NC Report. Sociometric) place it at around 15%. The percentage of Vox is one of the great doubts that will be resolved on the night of 28M since it does not seem easy to measure the real strength that the candidacy -with a lot of hidden vote- led by Flores, an unknown to the general public (in that case, that the polls coincide), in a scenario where regional and general are not going to go together.
This time, instead of going along with the generals – that campaign in a national key that such a centralist and centralized formation likes – the vote will be next to the municipal ballot box and there Vox falters. In the last local elections held in May 2019, he achieved a pyrrhic 3.98% due to his difficulty in putting together lists in the different towns of the Valencian Community.
To avoid this fact, now they have gotten to work and, according to the data provided by the formation, in the Valencia constituency (the one with the most seats at stake) the number of candidacies has doubled to cover 94% of the population entitled to vote. In fact, in the judicial district of Valencia, which is key in terms of population percentage, 100% of the candidacies will present themselves, including Lloc Nou de la Corona, a town with just 109 inhabitants, the same sources say.
However, the general ones (where Vox obtained its best historical result) reveal that the green mark causes special sympathy in the south of the Valencian Community. As this newspaper has already detailed, Alicante, with 35 seats at stake, was the province where Vox received the highest percentage of support with 19.81%, which made it the third political force, far behind Unidas Podemos and CompromÃs.
Thus, in regions such as Vega Baja, it fell just over 1,000 votes from the PP with 25.71% of the votes, winning in towns such as San Fulgencio (with almost 8,000 inhabitants). In Alicante city it dropped to 18.77%; all in all, a much higher figure than what he achieved on the municipal list.
It is difficult to trace voter profiles in a formation with so much hidden vote. In fact, in the CIS post-electoral study -carried out between June and July 2019- it is curious that those furthest to the right of the ideological scale trust the PP more than the formation of Santiago Abascal. However, when the citizens as a whole are asked, they place Vox at 9.2 on that ideological scale that goes from 1 left to 10 right.
Reviewing these data to capture the potential voter of this brand, it can be said that 7.5% of the voters are located between 8 and 10 of the left-right axis and that there is 24.3% of those surveyed who defend a State with a single central government without autonomies, a territorial organization that only Vox approaches.
However, ideology and centralism is not the only characteristic that defines its electorate. I can see it in the generals. The far-right formation received very significant support in regions with high purchasing power such as Camp de Túria (21.28% of the votes), managing to be the force with the most votes in towns such as Nà quera, Serra or San Antonio de Benagéber. The income variable is not negligible because when the data from those same elections in neighborhoods of the city of Valencia are analyzed, it is observed that Vox achieves its best results in those with higher incomes, such as L’Eixample and Pla del Real.
Some variables that will be key when it comes to elucidating the electoral muscle of the formation and the possibility that it has of activating the lever of political change in the Valencian Community.
