The deadly explosion produced yesterday by at least one Russian missile in the territory of Poland, near its border with Ukraine, raises concerns that the conflict spills over into NATO, since Warsaw is a member of the alliance. Although at first the Polish authorities reported that the projectile was Russian-made, the United States on Wednesday ruled out that the missile was fired from Russia and the first conclusions indicate that the missile that hit Polish soil was fired by Ukrainian forces against a Russian missile. Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Defense already denied its participation yesterday.
If Moscow were to be found to be to blame for the explosion, it could trigger NATO’s principle of collective defense known as Article 5, in which an attack on one member of the Western alliance is considered an attack on all, thereby which begins deliberations on a possible response in the form of a military attack.
However, we are still a long way from this point. For the moment, NATO has summoned its ambassadors at 10 in the morning today and Poland to its National Security Council (at 12 noon). Warsaw was expected to use the meeting to invoke Article 4 (a distant prelude to Article 5), which calls for consultations with allies in the event of a security threat, giving the Alliance more time to determine what steps to take. But it is not certain that it will, according to NATO sources, due to doubts about the responsibilities of the attack.
Article 4 allows any of NATO’s 30 members to bring any issue of concern, especially security-related, to the table for discussion at the North Atlantic Council. But the article itself does not push for any action.
Specifically, Article 4 establishes that NATO members “shall consult when, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of its members is threatened.” It often serves to send a message to the world that NATO is concerned about a particular situation.
This article determines the principle of collective defense and the cornerstone of NATO. This is that an “armed attack” against one ally is considered an attack against all of its members. Therefore, it sets in motion the possibility of a collective self-defense being activated, although it does not have to automatically translate into military action.
In the face of said attack, “each of the members, in exercise of the right of individual or collective legitimate defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, shall assist the Party or Parties attacked by taking immediately, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such actions as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain security in the North Atlantic area,” the article reads.
Since the alliance’s creation in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked seven times, most recently on February 24, the first day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia (countries that are part of NATO’s eastern flank and closest to Russia) requested to hold consultations under the aforementioned article on the Russian aggression.
As for Article 5, it has been invoked only once and that was immediately after the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001.
