The open debate after the announcement made this week about the holding of a consultative referendum in Scotland in October 2023 has many faces from the Spanish and Catalan political perspective. The Government is once again looking at Edinburgh, but its main focus is on the European Union. It is where he considers that there is some room for maneuver –at least, in discursive terms–, understanding that one of the great arguments that the Scottish Prime Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has used to call a self-determination referendum is Scotland’s rejection of Brexit.
The debate has its reverberation in Spanish and Catalan politics, but with very different wicks from those of 2014 – when a referendum endorsed by London was held in which the yes was lost – and the Catalan 2017. Now, Boris Johnson does not support the consultation, it is possible that the Supreme Court, which Sturgeon has asked to rule, will say no, and it will also be rejected in the Westminster Parliament. A very unfavorable context for independence. But even so, the Scottish movement –analyzed from various sources as an internal key strategy of the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) and not as a real will to hold a referendum– is going to have its repercussions.
Looking at Brussels, sources from the Departament d’Acció Exterior indicate that “it will be very interesting to see the role that the EU plays. No one doubts that more or less publicly this time he will support the Scots’ desire for independence.” From the Ministry of Victòria Alsina, they work with the argument that the doors of Europe could open for Scotland and, therefore, for Catalonia in the future. But the analysts consulted consider that in the current harsh context it is even more difficult for the EU to agree to discuss borders.
“Brussels knows that the majority of Scots would like to be in the EU -says Marc Sanjaume, Professor of Political Theory (UPF)- and very possibly would like Scotland to return, the question is whether this folder is powerful enough to change the community policy”. In the European Union, he reminds, he walks with lead feet in the face of any threat to the integrity of the member states.
From the socialist ranks, the deep European character of the Scots is underlined, but it is considered that thinking that the European Union will facilitate the entry of Scotland “is a self-delusion”. In addition, it is indicated, “the EU has no interest in the secession of Catalonia, especially after the Russian plot.”
The debate between London and Edinburgh has several layers. The no of the English Government is an essential element compared to 2014 and a “rest” also for the central Government. Nor does Sturgeon want to carry out a consultation outside the legal framework. To begin with, says Sanjaume, a member of the Òmnium board, the announcement should be read as a strategic move for the bases of his party, rather than the firm will to carry out a consultation.
There is now no demand from the citizens, and what the SNP leader is doing is making a promise. What is interesting is to look at what the Supreme Court can say about the Referendum law sent by Sturgeon. It will be necessary to know if there is unanimity of criteria, even if it could rule in the line of the Supreme Court of Canada -which in 1998 established how Quebec should raise the right to secession-, indicates Sanjaume.
Another issue to observe will be whether the Supreme Court considers that it is Westminster that should rule on the consultation, thus giving the decision a relevant political nature. What it minimizes is the option of holding plebiscite elections if Sturgeon is denied the referendum. “I don’t think Scotland will have a 1-O,” the political scientist stresses.
In the debate on the right to self-determination restarted in Scotland, the so-called “contagion effect” also weighs heavily in both British and Spanish terms. Jean-Baptiste Harguindéguy, co-author of the study Comparing independence referendums: Why do some states accept them and others do not?, considers it very unlikely that Johnson will allow it since it could open Pandora’s box in Northern Ireland, where he has won the elections. Sinn Fein. A domino effect whose debate in the territorial sphere can be extrapolated to Spain.
This professor of Political Science (Pablo de Olavide University) comments that in the SNP movement he also plays with the current situation of weakness of Boris Johnson. He takes advantage of this weakness, but the Scottish leader knows that he must take into account that there may be a change in the Executive in London, “and if he changes the scenario, he has a lot to lose”.
Sturgeon’s movement is read as a strategy of tension – it is obviously not exclusive to Scotland – that also looks towards the party’s bases. But to call a referendum he needs a strong mobilization that is not observed at the moment, nor in Catalonia, according to the political scientist. In this line, from the socialist ranks it is expected that the Catalan independence movement will want to take advantage of this second announcement in Scotland to “breathe a little life” into the movement, very demobilized according to the latest polls.
To gauge the trajectory of this new stage, it will be necessary to know, first, what the Supreme Court decides.
