Basque politics, predictable in recent years, these days are witnessing twists in the script that anticipate a new political cycle with new protagonists. The announcement of Iñigo Urkullu’s departure has been followed by the news that the PNV is counting on Imanol Pradales, a 48-year-old university professor on leave and currently Deputy for Infrastructure of Bizkaia, to take over. EH Bildu, meanwhile, hopes that Arnaldo Otegi will communicate this Monday to his political table a reflection on his future that, in all probability, will lead to a commitment to bicephaly: with Otegi himself as general coordinator and an alternative candidate for the fight with the PNV.
The changes that are taking place do not only look at what is closest, the elections that will be held between March and June, but also open the door to a broad political horizon. The previous political cycle, which began with the end of ETA in 2011, gives way to a new one, which, for the moment, continues to be marked by the fight between the PNV and EH Bildu. It will, however, be carried out by a new generation.
The Jeltzales face this situation with many doubts after the results of the May and July elections, although also with audacity. The Euskadi Buru Batzar (EBB), the party’s executive, has chosen to decisively face the pending generational change. They tried it, with uneven results, in the municipal and provincial elections in May, also seeking the arrival of more women to the command positions of the Basque institutional framework.
Replacing Urkullu with Pradales, however, is a much riskier move. The EBB is looking for fresh air to break the dynamic that comes from the last two appointments with the polls. A candidate from a generation after the Urkullu-Ortuzar-Esteban trident, with experience in public management, to excite and mobilize his electorate.
The difficulty for the Jeltzales is that their decline in the last elections is due to a host of factors, something that makes diagnosis and political response difficult. Many reasons are pointed out, even from part of the militancy: the wear and tear due to the management of so many institutions; problems in the Basque Health System-Osakidetza or in areas of education; the response that has been given to local issues that citizens identified as urgent (in San Sebastián, housing and tourism management; in Bilbao, security…); corruption scandals such as the ‘De Miguel case’; the sufficiency with which it has been decided that certain infrastructure projects would be carried out “yes or yes”; or even the generational changes in Basque society.
In their day, Urkullu and his team knew how to read the political moment in which a society found itself that demanded stability and management. They put together a discourse with social content around a “Basque model of sustainable human development” and opted to seek transversal agreements, although prioritizing understanding with their PSE partners. Faced with the option of charismatic leadership, they opted for a sober and reliable leader.
It is evident that this road was already showing wear and tear. In the last Basque Sociometer, however, Urkullu maintained extraordinary transversal approval rates. In May, 93% of his party voters approved of him, 82% of PSE voters, 80% of PP voters, 64% of Podemos voters, 50% of EH Bildu voters and the 48% of those from Vox.
Imanol Pradales, the one chosen by the PNV, will need time and a lot of skill to reach the levels of popularity and trust that Urkullu had reached. He will have in his favor his excellent training – he has a doctorate in Political Science and Sociology from the University of Deusto and has several master’s degrees – and an experience of more than 15 years in public management linked to the Provincial Council of Bizkaia. Against him, an image of a technocrat, excessively linked to the field of business and infrastructure, and a very Biscayan profile that may have difficulties gaining traction in some areas. His replacement represents, in any case, the generational change that the PNV is looking for and which will be followed by Ortuzar’s departure from the party leadership next summer.
Meanwhile, EH Bildu will, in all likelihood, opt for an intermediate path. Arnaldo Otegi, 65, has already indicated that he wants to continue one more term as general coordinator of the coalition. As for his eventual aspiration to Lehendakaritza, it is very likely that he will communicate tomorrow his desire to open the door to other alternatives. He gains weight in the option of bicephaly.
The nationalist formation already knows that it will have a solvent and moderate profile in front of it, but closely linked to the economic sphere. They think about candidates with a more social profile and who, likewise, can offer that perspective of generational change. They do not see it as easy to reach Ajuria Enea, although they aspire to be the force with the most votes and to place the PNV in the difficult position of needing the votes of PSE and PP to govern. That situation, obviously, could devastate the jeltzals in the short term. Pradales is your great bet to avoid it.
