“Now the real work begins.” It is the phrase that Jordi Turull uttered just at the moment when Francina Armengol proclaimed the investiture of Pedro Sánchez. The pact between Junts and the PSOE certifies that “a new stage” of negotiation is opening and, in ERC, president Pere Aragonès appears on CNN and the BBC talking about a new phase of the process, that of achieving an agreed referendum. The process is dead, long live the process. The independence vote for the investiture ceased to be in doubt the moment the socialist leader agreed to promote an amnesty law, but the words will be – “negotiation” and “no dialogue”, and no “forgiveness” – and Compliance with the agreements is what determines the future of the legislature, including the Catalan one.
The official barometer in Catalonia grants a wide advantage to the PSC before closing the pact with Junts, but the Catalan arithmetic looks as explosive as that of Congress. The socialists today have a better relationship with Junts than with ERC in the Parliament; However, the investiture negotiation includes the “good faith” negotiation of the general budgets and links them to those of the Generalitat, which gives air to the Republicans. There is no doubt about the pact preferences of the PSC and the pragmatists of Junts, but the sum falls short and they are incompatible with the commons. Then there is the residue that the amnesty leaves in the socialist electorate: division. Only 49% digest it, compared to 41% who reject it, which requires an extra effort from Salvador Illa and Sánchez himself. The Catalan socialist bastion is what allowed him to remain in Moncloa after 23-J.
Junts negotiators assure that there has been no direct contact with Sánchez, except for the photo of Míriam Nogueras in Congress. They have never asked for it. Santos Cerdán is the maker of the PSOE pact and, now, the guarantor of compliance. How is progress being made? Junts hopes to leave the first meeting of its particular negotiation table with a work methodology and schedule of topics to be addressed. The results, as with the investiture, will be made public only when there are agreements. Meanwhile, discretion and silence are prescribed.
The know-how is consolidated. In a few minutes, the General Affairs Council of the EU dispatched the discussion on the official status of Catalan in the European institutions, but no one in Junts showed signs of nervousness. Neither extra gestures were demanded nor were there reproaches to the PSOE for the delay in advance payment. José Manuel Albares transmits daily information to Junts, and the absence of high-sounding statements protects his efforts from the PP’s maneuvers in Brussels. Also in another phase of the process are the relations between Junts and ERC. Nogueras not only ignored Gabriel Rufián’s warning from the Congress platform – “the PSOE will deceive you”–. “As if they didn’t exist,” is the post-convergent response. Never has an intervention by Junts – or CiU – kept so many deputies in office at the wrong time and all in silence.
In recent weeks, the relationship between the independence leaders has been cold and it does not seem that the competition for the authorship of an amnesty law will remedy this. The text approved by ERC differs very little from that put forward by Junts. Nor will they approach due to electoral pressure. The pro-independence majority has ceased to be an argument, because it is unviable, according to the CEO. Without necessity, there is no virtue, Sánchez could say. Junts has returned to the political playing field just when its institutional presence quotas are at minimum levels. And Puigdemont? The most optimistic would like to see it in Catalonia in the European campaign… The amnesty law sets the application times, but the “preferential and urgent” judicial processing does not respond to political times. Those waiting for amnesty now remember that the Estatut ruling took four years to arrive. And the process started…
