The PP would win the general elections again if they were held today and it would do so with a significant margin, according to the March barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) published this Wednesday. The Popular Party, which in the previous survey already had a very slight advantage over the PSOE of two tenths, increased it to 2.7 points, in a survey whose field work was carried out after the Koldo case broke out, which threatens the socialists, and when an agreement between them and Junts to reactivate the Amnesty law that the plenary session of Congress will approve tomorrow was taken for granted.
The problems for the government coalition do not end here since Sumar falls noticeably in the CIS estimate coinciding with a significant rise in Vox, which places Santiago Abascal’s team in third position, a practically unprecedented circumstance in the public organization’s surveys. This means that the sum of PP and Vox is close to 44% of the estimated vote. In addition, the leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, surpasses the second vice president and leader of Sumar, Yolanda Díaz, in the assessment of leaders.
Specifically, the body headed by José Félix Tezanos grants a vote estimate of 34% to Feijóo’s party, the highest granted by the demographic institute to the Popular Party since the former Galician president led it. This represents an increase of 8 tenths compared to February and one more point compared to the 23-J elections.
On the other hand, the socialists are losing steam and up to 1.7 points compared to February in a barometer whose field work was carried out between March 1 and 5, a few days after the former Minister of Transport and former secretary of organization of the PSOE José Luis Ábalos, whose former advisor Koldo García is investigated for the collection of commissions for the sale of masks to different administrations during the pandemic, was expelled from the party and moved to the mixed group in Congress due to his possible political responsibility in the plot. The PSOE is left with a vote estimate of 31.3%, four tenths below the results of the last general elections.
Discounting the debut of Sumar in the CIS barometers in April 2023, for the first time Vox surpasses the minor partners of the government coalition thanks to a two-point increase in vote estimates compared to February, up to 9.9%. also coinciding with the reactivation of the Amnesty law, which at the end of January was stopped in the justice commission.
For its part, Yolanda Díaz’s party continues its downward trend, only interrupted in February, and loses one point in vote estimates to 9.2%, remaining 3.1 points behind the July results. Losses that Podemos does not recover in any case, split from the parliamentary group, which falls by more than half a point and goes from a vote estimate of 2.9% to 2.2%.
In the field of parties with strict Catalan obedience, the reactivation of the Amnesty seems to benefit Junts somewhat, which in the previous poll was penalized after overturning the rule at the end of January. Thus, Carles Puigdemont’s party would rise two tenths, the same number that ERC would lose, to 1.2% and would cut Esquerra’s lead to 7 tenths.
Regarding the two main Basque parties, in March the tables would be reversed and EH Bildu would regain first position with a vote estimate of 1.1 points to the detriment of the PNV, which would drop to 0.9%.
In line with the good electoral expectations of the PP, the president of the popular ones is positioned as the leader most valued by those surveyed, with 4.22 out of 10, thus surpassing both the leader of Sumar, Yolanda Díaz, who in the barometer Even before the decline, it remained the best rated with a 4.27 and now obtains a 4.11, like the President of the Government himself who is rated with a 4.10. In last place, as usual, is the leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal, with 2.82.
Despite these assessments, Sánchez continues to be the preferred president of the Government for the majority of those surveyed (23.3%), followed at a distance by Feijóo (16.5%), Yolanda Díaz (6.3%), Santiago Abascal (5.9) and the president of the Community of Madrid, Isabel Díaz-Ayuso (5.3).
However, the Chief Executive loses confidence among those surveyed. 69.5% of them have little or no confidence in Pedro Sánchez, a percentage that in February was 68.5% and a year ago was 66.5%. The leader of the opposition moves in worse numbers than the president of the Government but more stable. Thus, 72.3% claim to have little or no confidence in Feijóo when a year ago this percentage was 71.5%.
Regarding the concerns expressed by those surveyed, the economic crisis remains the main problem, cited by 29%, followed by unemployment (18%), the bad behavior of politicians (16.8%) and the Government and specific parties or politicians (14.9%). Immigration, which just a year ago, in the March 2023 barometer, was considered one of the three main problems for 3.8% of the participants in the study, is now considered one of the three main problems for 10.4%. The Amnesty law, which is being one of the main headaches and cause of electoral wear and tear for the Government, is considered one of the three main problems in Spain for only 1.6% of those surveyed.
