The complex parliamentary arithmetic left by 23-J can open a window of opportunity for the PNV, which is experiencing its tightest electoral situation in the last 12 years. The jeltzales understand that the PSOE and Sumar must open the debate on the State model to, first of all, guarantee support for the investiture of Pedro Sánchez and, later, guarantee governability. It is there that the PNV aspires to regain prominence with an enabling, but also demanding, discourse on “the recognition of the Basque and Catalan national reality”, a path that it hopes will serve to reconnect with a large part of its electorate. .
The PNV perceived signs of wear, but the electoral setbacks of May 28 and July 23 were not expected. In four years it has gone from its electoral ceiling in municipal elections, exceeding 408,000 votes, to a figure very close to its floor in local elections, with 86,000 fewer supports. 23-J achieved its worst result in general elections since 1989, at the time of the split of Eusko Alkartasuna. The blow has been enormous, and the question that resonates in the jeltzale environment is the following: What has happened since 2019-2020 for the party to find itself in an antagonistic situation today?
There is no single answer; On the contrary, this decline is due to a host of factors: wear and tear from management after holding power in many institutions; the problems in the Basque Health System-Osakidetza; the response given to local problems that the public identified as pressing (two examples: in San Sebastián, housing and tourism; in Bilbao, security); the electoral bill for corruption with the De Miguel case; the arrogance with which it has been settled that certain projects, highly questioned, would be done “yes or yes”; or generational changes in Basque society.
Likewise, a conjuncture of a global nature converges. Unlike in 2019, when there was a certain stability after a long crisis, society is perplexed and fed up with a disturbing accumulation of uncertainties. There is anger, and this factor also weakens an institutional party like the PNV, a trend that contrasts with a strengthening of EH Bildu linked to its pragmatic strategy. The Abertzale coalition is achieving, based on small steps, its great objective: establishing itself as a credible alternative for a considerable part of Basque society.
The alarms went off at Sabin Etxea on 23-J, although that same night a window of opportunity began to be seen. The peneuvista leaders have offered some clues in recent days. The reading is clear: the Catalan and Basque nationalist and pro-independence parties will be key, so the opportunity opens up for the central government to address what they call “the Basque agenda”.
The PNV has already stressed that its group in Madrid will once again be decisive, and it has its list of demands on the table. The jeltzales will seek “recognition of the Basque nation” and, at the same time, will try to renew and shield self-government. The Basque nationalists will seek that, this time, the more than 20 pending powers of the Gernika Statute are transferred, a commitment that the central Executive failed to fulfill the last legislature. In addition, they will try to ensure that this mandate is that of the renewal of the Statute of Autonomy.
Among the aspirations of the PNV are also that of shielding self-government, looking for an alternative formula to arbitrate conflicts of jurisdiction, or, that of favoring Basque –and Catalan– participation in the European project. They will also seek to advance on a symbolic level: for example, the jeltzales are committed to promoting the participation of some Basque sports teams in international competitions.
The big question is whether the PNV will seek a common front with EH Bildu, ERC and Junts or, on the contrary, if it will maintain a differentiated agenda. Joseba Egibar, president of the party in Gipuzkoa, has spoken of an agreement “to four”. “To take a new leap, the Catalans and the Basques must create national opportunities,” he said. In any case, it is not a simple scheme. Ten months before the Basque elections, the rivalry between the PNV and EH Bildu is total, and the Abertzale coalition maintains a strategic alliance with ERC. The jeltzales, on the other hand, have good relations with sectors of the old convergent space, but not with the Puigdemont circle.
In any case, the PNV estimates that the window of opportunity that can be opened will serve to accentuate its political identity, which some sectors see as somewhat blurred. During the previous political cycle, Basque society rewarded jeltzale pragmatism, and the party knew how to reach new electoral niches. He received a relevant portion of the borrowed vote, which, on the other hand, is always the first to leave. The internal listening process promoted by the PNV a few months ago detected that a part of the militancy and its sympathizers yearn for a greater commitment to key elements of the party’s historical identity, from promoting the Basque language to the territorial issue in relation to Navarra , where EH Bildu has become strong. They also recognized that a part of the interviewees saw a party that was too “masculinized” and “not very modern”.
The PNV faces a crucial course in a situation similar to the one it experienced in 2011. Then, Bildu burst into the municipal elections and, with Aralar, the Amaiur brand surpassed the PNV in deputies in the general elections. The PNV, however, knew how to read the situation. It recovered and became the party that has led a political cycle marked by the end of ETA. It is evident that the Abertzale coalition is today a more solvent rival; although the key will be if the PNV knows how to read the Basque society of 2023 and plays its cards well, also in the game that is being fought in Madrid.
