The PSOE would take victory in the elections to the European Parliament that will be held in Spain on Sunday, June 9, according to the pre-election survey released this Thursday by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) a few hours before the campaign starts. electoral and which places Vox in third position in a European Chamber in which Ciudadanos would maintain its presence and the group of voters of the controversial ultra activist Alvise Pérez would enter.
Specifically, the candidacy led by the current third vice president of the Government, Teresa Ribera, would obtain between 21 and 24 deputies with a vote estimate of 32.8% to 35.2%, results similar to those of 2019 (21 seats and 32.9% of the vote). For its part, the popular Dolors Montserrat’s list would gain between 18 and 20 seats from the current 13, with an estimated vote of between 27.9% and 30.2%.
Despite the great comeback of the PP of up to 10 points (in the previous European elections it obtained just over 20% of the votes), the socialist victory would be based, according to the CIS, on a great fragmentation of the right-wing vote, given that Vox, with Jorge Buxadé at the helm, would be positioned, with between 5 or 6 seats, as the third Spanish political force in the European Parliament, which would include the group of voters. The party of the controversial ultra activist Alvise Pérez is over, with one or two deputies, while Ciudadanos, which was third in 2019, would also manage to retain between one and two seats, with Jordi Cañas at the head of the list.
As a whole, the Spanish right would increase representation and vote compared to the 2019 elections, but this would not be enough to compromise the socialist victory, according to the demographic organization. Then PP, Cs and Vox added 39% of the votes and 23 seats. The estimate made by the CIS places them in a range of between 41.3% and 46.7% of the votes and between 25 and 30 seats.
Furthermore, the good results of the PSOE would not be detrimental to the candidates to its left, since Sumar, who is running for the first time in these elections, with Estrella Galán, would get four deputies, while Podemos, with the former Minister of Equality, Irene Montero would get two or three seats. In 2019 Unidas Podemos, which made up a good part of the parties that now compete on these two lists, won six seats, at least the same as they could obtain in June.
Regarding the territorial lists, the body led by the socialist José Félix Tezanos generally grants them less representation than what they obtained in the previous elections. For example, Ahora repúblicas, which integrates ERC, EH Bildu and BNG, among others, would achieve between two and three seats with Diana Riba at the helm when in 2019, with Oriol Junqueras as a candidate and in prison, it obtained three. For its part, Junts i Lliures per Europa, which obtained up to three seats with Carles Puigdemont, would keep between one or two with Toni Comín. Finally, the coalition For a Europe of Solidarity (CEUS), which includes the PNV among others, would achieve between one or none. I had one.
The only leader who approves in the CIS survey is the Minister for the Ecological Transition and candidate of the PSOE, Teresa Ribera, who obtains a 5.3 out of 10. She is followed by the head of the PP list, Dolors Montserrat, with a 4, 5.
The three highest-rated leaders are women, since Estrella Galán, from Sumar, completes the podium with a 3.89. She is followed by the former Minister of Equality and Podemos candidate, Irene Montero, who has a 3.78. Podemos voters rate it with an average of 6.76 and PSOE voters suspend it with an average of 4.79.
Behind him, Jordi Cañas obtains a 3.61, although he highlights that the voters of his party, Ciudadanos, only give him a 5.85. He is followed by Tomás Guitarte, from Existen, with a 3.58 and Jorge Buxadé, from VOX, with a 3.4. The PNV candidate, Oihane Agirregoitia, has less than three points, who remains at 2.86, and Diana Riba, from Ahora Repúblicas, who obtains 2.82. In last position is the Lliures per Europa candidate, Toni Comín, with 2.58, despite being the candidate with the highest rating among his own voters (7.9).
