Salvador Illa’s PSC consolidates itself as a party that would win the Catalan elections on May 12, by obtaining between 39 and 40 deputies, compared to the 33 it has now, while Junts, led by Carles Puigdemont, and ERC, with President Pere Aragonès at the head, they would compete for second place with a slight advantage for the post-convergents in seats, in a Parliament where the absolute pro-independence majority that has existed since 2015 could not be reissued, not even with the participation of Aliança Catalana, the far-right party led by the mayor of Ripoll, Sílvia Orriols, who could enter with up to two deputies, according to the pre-election survey published this Thursday by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS).
The survey, whose field work was carried out between April 11 and 22 with more than 8,900 interviews, also predicts a notable growth of the PP, which would go from the three deputies it obtained in 2021 to between 13 and 14, and the disappearance of Citizens of the Catalan Chamber.
Specifically, the survey gives the socialists a vote estimate of between 26.9% and 28.3% and a range of between 39 and 40 deputies, which is between six or seven more deputies than those obtained on the 14th. February 2021. The good prognosis for Illa, combined with the impossibility of re-editing the pro-independence majority, would leave only the option of a PSC government with ERC and Comunes Sumar. In fact, if the highest ranges of the PSC and ERC were met, to which the CIS grants between 27 and 28 seats, both formations would reach the 68 that marks the absolute majority of the Parliament, so it would not be necessary, in this case, the contest of the commons. However, the republican leadership has refused on several occasions in recent days to govern with the PSC.
In any case, the demoscopic institute sinks the expectations of the independence groups. For Puigdemont’s candidacy, the center led by socialist José Félix Tezanos predicts a slight advantage in seats (28-30) over the Republicans (27-28), but reverses the position in vote estimates: between 16.3 and 18.1% for Junts and between 17.7% and 19.5% for ERC.
The PP would rise to fourth position in the Catalan Chamber by absorbing a good part of the Ciudadanos vote. Those of Alejandro Fernández would take 13 or 14 seats when they only had three with around 10% of the votes. Vox would lose one position and between two and three seats compared to the current composition of the Catalan Chamber to remain with 8 or 9 deputies.
In sixth place would be Comunes Sumar, responsible in part for the electoral advance in Catalonia by rejecting the budgets prepared by the Government, with results very similar to the previous regional elections. If then Jéssica Albiach’s team obtained 8 seats, the CIS gives them between 7 and 8.
The sum of the seats that the CIS awards to socialists and commoners (48 in the highest range) would be clearly insufficient to invest Illa, something that could be solved if PP and Vox would lend their deputies for an investiture of Illa with the argument of leaving to the independence movement outside the Government. A highly unlikely possibility given the atmosphere of maximum tension between the left-wing and right-wing forces in Spanish politics.
The CUP, with Laia Estada at the helm, would go from fifth place to seventh with a loss of between 2 and 4 seats to be left with between 5 and 7. Results that in part prevent repeating the absolute pro-independence majority that would not even be achieved with the far-right Aliança Catalana, which could enter the Parliament. The CIS gives the Sílvia Orriols party between no and two deputies.
Finally, Ciudadanos would lose its six deputies that it obtained in 2021 and would be left out of the Parliament.
The survey also represents a boost for the first secretary of the PSC, who establishes himself as the most valued leader, the preferred one to preside over the Generalitat, as the one who inspires the most confidence or as the one most prepared to solve Catalonia’s problems. Specifically, respondents only approve of Illa with a 5.3. One in four citizens believes that he is the most prepared to resolve the most relevant issues in Catalonia and prefers him to preside over the Generalitat. For 23% of those surveyed, he is the one who inspires the most confidence.
The second highest rated candidate is President Pere Aragonès with 4.86, but for the rest of the metrics he is surpassed by Carles Puigdemont, who nevertheless receives a clear failure (3.86) due to the low score given by his detractors. Thus, the person from Girona is the best prepared to resolve the most relevant issues in Catalonia for 15.8% of those surveyed, the one who arouses the most confidence for 13.4% and the preferred one to govern for 17%. The Esquerra candidate is the preferred one for 14%, the most prepared for 13.6% and the one who inspires the most confidence for 12.5%.
The Vox candidate, Ignacio Garriga with 2.26, and the Ciudadanos candidate, Carlos Carrizosa, with 2.73, are the lowest rated leaders.
Regarding the management of ERC in the Government, practically 59% of those surveyed described it as bad or very bad, while 57.5% considered the opposition work of the PSC to be bad or very bad. A percentage that shoots up to 74.5% when asked about Junts’ opposition work.
Although the survey distances the possibility of a pro-independence majority, the independence of Catalonia leads the ranking of problems and is the main one for one in 5 respondents. Followed by political problems in general (16.5%), the economic crisis and rising prices (6.4%), immigration (4.9%) and housing (4.7%).
In relation to the feeling of belonging, 46% of those surveyed feel as much Spanish as Catalan, while 39% feel more Catalan or only Catalan, and 11% feel more Spanish or only Spanish.
