If you go to a psychologist to find out what profession suits you, or what your type of personality is (controlling, dominant, helpful, curious, perfectionist, self-righteous…), maybe they ask you to draw on a piece of paper the first thing that comes to mind, or asks him outright what concepts he associates, for example, with the number five. And the answers, depending on the age and the context, can be as diverse as the five continents, the five senses, the youth novels of “the Five”, the musical group Los Cinco Latinos, the lead of the “magnificent five” of the Real Zaragoza, the five wolves of the lullaby… Or the five promises that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak solemnly made to the British so that they would place their trust in him.
First promise, cut inflation in half; second, that the economy grow again; third, lower the national debt; fourth, cut public health waiting lists, and fifth, approve laws that prevent the arrival of asylum seekers by boat through the English Channel. He formulated them more than six months ago, and at the moment he cannot fulfill any of them, which is a serious problem when they have been in power for thirteen years, the voters are tired of the same party (in this case, the Conservatives) and the The general perception is that the country does not work and is in free fall.
Sunak, taking advice from the Bank of England, believed inflation would drop dramatically when energy prices normalized and Ukraine’s war-hit supply chains resumed operation. It was logical, but it has not been like that. The 8.2% rate is the highest in the G-7 and mainly affects food and basic necessities, with no prospect of immediate relief. At the same time, interest rates have skyrocketed, and those who bought their houses with variable mortgages have to pay thousands of euros more per year.
The national debt, meanwhile, already constitutes more than one hundred percent of GDP, and has caused the markets to punish the United Kingdom and the cost of servicing it to be at the level of Italy, and some months even higher. The Treasury responded to the pandemic by casually printing money, taking advantage of low interest rates and ignoring the impact on inflation. Now they’ve gone up, and it’s a problem.
Sunak guaranteed that before the next elections the economy would grow again, but that growth is, for the moment, rickety (0.1% in the last quarter) and the threat of recession persists. Between one thing and another, if the British ask themselves if they are better now than a year ago, or two, or three, or four, the vast majority will answer no, much worse. Few things do as much damage to a government as a cost-of-living crisis, with prices rising more than wages and purchasing power falling. In the UK, it is lower than in 2008.
The NHS (public health), which in this country has gone from being a religion to becoming a true cult, celebrated its 75th anniversary this week in the midst of the biggest crisis in its history, with seven and a half million people on lists of Wait up to four months for operations. Sunak promised to reduce them, but for the moment they have increased, due to the gridlock caused by the pandemic and periodic strikes by nurses and doctors demanding higher pay and better working conditions.
The injections of funds fall on deaf ears in a public medicine that is an immense bureaucracy, where a good part of the money remains in management. After three quarters of a century, it cries out for a thorough restructuring, speculating on a co-payment system, in which those who wish to access doctors more quickly, be received in person or enjoy their own hospital room, pay a quantity, as is done in some European countries. But the resistance to stop being free for everyone is enormous. And the lack of a strategy (and a budget) for the care of the elderly who are no longer able to fend for themselves is a real bomb.
The prime minister’s fifth promise, and the one he trusted the most, was to stop the arrival of small boats through legislation (and bilateral agreements with France). But his plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda has been rejected by the courts (although the Supreme will have the last word), the Lords have tabled various amendments to the bill, human rights organizations are mobilized, and there is no he hopes that no plane will leave for Kigali before it is electorally too late. In addition, the voters are not unaware that, in addition to all this, the Government has opened the doors of “legal immigration” to 660,000 foreigners, a historical record, because they are essential to do the jobs that the natives do not want, pay the pensions and that the economy does not collapse.
“Five wolves had the wolf, five wolves behind the broom”, Sunak would like to lull the British to sleep with the lullaby, but he does not succeed. They think of his five broken promises. Or they change numbers and go to the four and the four horsemen of the apocalypse that have prostrated the country: the financial collapse of 2008, austerity, the pandemic and Brexit.
