There is a saying in English that turkeys (knowing that their destiny is a sumptuous festive dinner) would never vote in favor of bringing Christmas early. In Spain, with a broader culinary culture, the concept could be extended to lambs, capons and even sea bream. The theory until now was that British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak would also not be in favor of going to the slaughterhouse of an early election in which he would be the favorite to lose by a landslide. But, lo and behold, he has called them for July instead of waiting for autumn or winter (the legal deadline was January). It is clear that in politics you never know.
The logic behind the decision is that the latest economic data is better. Last week the UK officially emerged from recession, the outlook for growth this year is slightly better than expected and yesterday inflation fell to 2.4%, very close to the Bank of England’s 2% target. It would therefore be a good time to take the British to the polls. Another thing is that citizens pay attention to macroeconomic figures, instead of feeling what their pocket says. And his pocket says that it is increasingly empty, that mortgages and prices have skyrocketed and salary increases do not cover it.
But for Sunak it was a matter of choosing between Guatemala and Guatepeor, because the polls, unchanged for more than a year, attribute to Labor an advantage of 21 points that would normally translate into an absolute majority, and for the conservatives, in a defeat of historical dimensions. Nigel Farage’s far-right Reform party (11% support) would steal numerous seats by dividing the right-wing electorate, and the Greens would register a considerable advance.
Sunak had been debating for some time about when to call the elections, and no moment had seemed propitious with the British very angry with the crisis in the cost of living and the increase in immigration (especially legal, despite the fact that the Government puts the emphasis on illegal). Waiting for the fall meant looking for an opportunity for things to improve or for something to happen in the world that would demand stability and turn voters away from the idea of ??a change of administration. A perspective, however, remote.
Everything indicates that immigration is not going to decrease in the coming months (in any case, more boats will arrive through the English Channel taking advantage of the good summer weather) and that the first flight to Rwanda, if it takes off, will not take more than a dozen asylum seekers on board. And no matter how much inflation is controlled on paper, the rise in prices has been consolidated, and what has risen will no longer fall. So Sunak has grasped at the straws of the latest statistics, hoping that the public will interpret them as a symptom that the worst is over and there is light at the end of the tunnel.
Jeremy Corbin’s Labor pressured Johnson to call elections in 2019, and what he got was a monumental defeat, one of the worst in his history, from which he feared at the time that it would take many years to recover. But the chaos of the Johnson and Truss governments allowed it to quickly regain ground. Now he too had been asking for an early election for months, and everything indicates that this time (with the moderate Keir Starmer at the helm) the move will turn out much better. Everything works in his favor: the economic situation, the disenchantment with Brexit, the fatigue after 14 years of conservative government, the succession of scandals, the spirit of the times…
The majority of Tory MPs wanted to postpone the election call as much as possible for the same reason that turkeys do not want a Christmas in November, why precipitate the loss of their seats and the need to look for a new job. Others, however, preferred to know as soon as possible what evil they had to die from and face the inexorable fate of the ballot box, thus ending a long agony. More than a hundred have announced that they will not stand for re-election, including former Prime Minister Theresa May and former Economy Minister Kwasi Kwarteng.
It could be said that the Conservative Party has decided to commit harakiri instead of waiting for the fire of the bonfire to consume it, in the hope that the improvement in the economy will give it a certain air and reduce the dimensions of the beating. He knows that it is almost impossible for him to win, but he would be in pain if it prevented an absolute majority for Labor and forced him to govern as a minority or forge a coalition with the Liberal Democrats and the Greens. Formal or informal coalitions, such as referendums, are the devil’s fault, and minority parties are usually the big losers.
To achieve this, Sunak’s strategy is to put fear into voters’ bodies of what the next Labor government would be, with higher taxes, more public debt, a worse relationship with the United States and inexperience in international politics, in an unstable world. with the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, the growing North American isolationism, Russian nationalism, the Chinese advance, protectionism, the rejection of globalization in some social sectors, a thriving extreme right… Better the known bad, conservatives say, than the good to know.
The fear tactic did not prevent Tony Blair’s victory in 1997 and in the two successive elections, and it will surely not help Sunak’s survival either. The impression is that the voters have made their decision and are not even listening to the conservatives. Starmer’s response is minimalism, a program free of ambitious objectives so as not to expose itself to the rival’s blows, even if this means reaching Downing Street without a reformist mandate and with empty coffers to improve social services and infrastructure. Once in place, we will see if it raises taxes even more or puts the country even more in debt. For the moment he prefers not to think about it, because his options are worse and worse. Like the turkeys on Christmas Eve. Rishi Sunak has called elections in the United Kingdom for next July 4. The news comes after a day full of rumors and an unusual silence from Downing Street, where the Government has been meeting since mid-morning.
The good performance of inflation in the last month may have been key to the decision, despite the fact that, according to surveys, the Labor Party is well ahead of the Tories in the projections.
