Claudia Sheinbaum, the best-placed candidate to run for the National Regeneration Movement Party (Morena) in the 2024 presidential elections, would easily win an election that would rival Xóchitl Gálvez, the woman with the most numbers to lead the opposition .
Sheinbaum, Mexican politician and academic, that Sheinbaum, who has been head of government of Mexico City between December 2018 and June 2023, is emerging as the probable person in charge of representing the left of MORENA in the next presidential elections just a few days before this movement headed by Andrés Manuel López Obrador elects its candidate for the presidency of the Republic.
According to polls carried out by different consultancies and survey companies, the preference of the Mexican electorate seems to be totally leaning to the left. To the point that MORENA would not have a real rival in next year’s elections. Previous surveys have already shown the distance of MORENA from the rest of the political parties. Up to 47% of voting intentions for the left-wing coalition compared to 13% for its closest competitor, the National Action Party (PAN).
Hence, the true interest of Mexican politics is focused on determining who will be the candidate that emerges from the ranks of the coalition founded by López Obrador. Claudia Sheinbaum, Marcelo Ebrard, Adán Augusto López, Gerardo Fernández Noroña, Ricardo Monreal and Manuel Velasco are the six MORENA candidates who are campaigning and touring the country. In the coming weeks, the coalition will choose, through a particular survey, its representative at the polls for the 2024 presidential contest.
Covarrubias y Asociados, one of the most important polling companies in Mexico, has carried out a survey that La Vanguardia has had access to, in which it outlines a possible electoral scenario for next year. The study was carried out between July 17 and 23, 2023 and the sample size was 1,500 people visited in person. The survey indicates that in the internal contest of MORENA, Claudia Sheinbaum is the one that arouses the greatest support among the electorate (34%), compared to 23% for Marcelo Ebrard, head of the Foreign Ministry during the López Obrador term. Far behind would be Fernández Noroña (8%), Adán Augusto (7%), Manuel Velasco (6%) and Ricardo Monreal (3%). The real battle, then, will be fought by Sheinbaum and Ebrard.
Covarrubias y Asociados has also analyzed the possible scenarios that will open up in the presidential elections of June 2, 2024, where the possible representative of the opposition, Xóchitl Gálvez, would be the opponent of the candidate of MORENA to reach the Presidency of Mexico. . In the first scenario, Covarrubias y Asociados asks about the duel between Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez. The result of the survey reveals that preferences are clearly leaning towards the “morenista” with 56%, compared to 23% for Gálvez. In a second scenario, Marcelo Ebrard would face Xóchitl Gálvez, although the result would also be favorable to MORENA, when the former foreign minister obtained 52% of the intention to vote while the opposition candidate would obtain 25%. Politician and engineer, Gálvez is currently a senator for the PAN.
An element that has been taken into account in the election of candidates is the participation of the morning radio news, which dedicates ample space to electoral information. Covarrubias y Asociados has asked citizens about their preferences and which are the programs that deserve more confidence.
The program that captures the greatest interest (with 34% of the preferences) is that of Ciro Gómez Leiva, “Por la Mañana”. This is a very critical space with the government that has gained more relevance after the supposed attack against the journalist months ago.
In second place with 17% appears the program “Aristegui En Vivo”, where the journalist Carmen Aristegui is also characterized by her critical sense. In the end, with 7%, the program “En los Tiempos de la Radio”, by Óscar Mario Beteta, was left.
