The election of the next president of Mexico is at hand. This Friday, March 1st, the campaigns of the three candidates officially begin, who will begin a tour throughout the country in search of the citizen vote, which should lead them to the presidential seat, where they will succeed Andrés Manuel López Obrador in office.
As the date of the federal elections approaches, citizen participation grows and candidate Claudia Sheinbaum remains ahead of citizens’ preferences over her adversaries Xóchitl Gálvez and Jorge Álvarez Máynez.
The contest will culminate on Sunday, June 2, when millions of Mexicans will cast their vote to elect the future president of Mexico. The campaign will last three months.
Among the surveys carried out in Mexico, the one carried out by the firm De las Heras Demotecnia stands out, one of the companies with the most tradition in the field of surveys and with 35 years of experience. The study to which La Vanguardia has had access shows the strength of the left in Mexican politics, since Claudia Sheinbaum, candidate of the National Regeneration Movement party (Morena), in alliance with the Green Party of Mexico and the Labor Party, He has a wide advantage over his two rivals.
The study carried out by De las Heras Demotecnia between February 15 and 19, 2024, in door-to-door interviews, indicates that the Morena candidate maintains a 26-point advantage over Xóchitl Gálvez, her closest competitor.
Rodrigo Galván de Las Heras, from the polling company, has pointed out that the preferences of Mexican citizens have remained stable since September 2022.
In the section of the survey where knowledge of the character was asked, Sheinbaum had a percentage increase, reaching 80% in February, while Gálvez reached 70%. Álvarez was far behind with 16%.
In the rubric on the opinion of the respondent about the candidates, which ranged from very good, to good, neither good nor bad, bad, very bad and don’t know, the Morena candidate registered 76% positive opinions against 10% of negative opinions. For her part, the candidate of the PRI, PAN and PRD, during the survey reached 38% positive opinions, against 44% negative opinions, and finally the standard bearer of Movimiento Ciudadano had 31% positive opinions against 44% of negative.
The poll asked about the intention of the vote. “If this Sunday there were elections for president of the Republic, which party or candidate would you vote for?”, Claudia Sheinbaum obtained 67% of the preferences of those surveyed, while Gálvez remained with 15% (that is, , there would be a difference of 52 percentage points between both) and Álvarez Máynez further down with 2 percent.
The other side of the coin would be the rejection that the citizens surveyed perceive of the contending political parties.
To the question of which party or candidate do you think would be worse for you and your family, who is the least convenient for you to win the next elections?, the National Action Party tops the list with 28% rejection, followed of the Institutional Revolutionary Party with 20%, while Morena is left with 10 percent of the rejection.
An important piece of information in the survey is the degree of approval that President López Obrador has, which has remained constant throughout the six-year term. By February 2024, López Obrador has 77% approval among those surveyed, which indicates at least 7 out of 10 Mexicans are satisfied with the management of the current president in almost six years of office.
Finally, the De las Heras Demotecnia house, as it did in January, made a more likely electoral scenario if the election were held at this time. Taking into account a participation of 51 percent of the electoral roll, the advantage of the Morena candidate remains.
With an estimate of 30 million votes, Claudia Sheinbaum would reach 61% of the votes, while the votes.
