Just over four months before the elections in Mexico to elect president, the name of Claudia Sheinbaum still does not have a real rival who could stand in her way to the succession of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). The candidate of the National Regeneration Movement party (Morena), in alliance with the Green Party of Mexico and the Labor Party, has already begun her pre-campaign throughout the country and has revealed all her power in the electoral preferences that place her very far above his electoral adversaries.
The polling house De las Heras Demotecnia, one of the companies with the greatest reputation in the field of polls and opinion studies in Mexico, with 35 years of experience, has carried out a study to which La Vanguardia has had access, where it makes clear the power of the left in Mexican politics. Rodrigo Galván de Las Heras, from the polling company, has pointed out the importance of the way in which polls are carried out in a country, Mexico, in which telephone coverage does not reach 40% of Mexicans. Given the socioeconomic level of the country, its resources, illiteracy and geography, to get the surveys right, the priority is in door-to-door surveys. With telephone surveys, adds Galván, there is a risk of leaving out 60% of the sample.
The survey carried out by De las Heras Demotecnia between January 10 and 14, 2024, door to door, indicates that the degree of approval of President López Obrador has remained constant throughout the six-year term and by January 2024 López Obrador has a 81% approval of those surveyed. At least 7 out of 10 Mexicans are satisfied with the management of the current president in almost six years of office.
On the contrary, the two parties that arouse the greatest rejection are the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the National Action Party (PAN). To the question of “with which party or candidate do you think things would be worse for you and your family, who is the least convenient for you to win the next elections?” the PAN received 29% of the responses and the PRI received one. 28% It should be noted that the PRI and the PAN participate in an alliance.
In the survey, the left-wing candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, surpasses Xóchitl Gálvez, the conservative candidate, by 30 points. To the question: “If there were elections this Sunday for president of the Republic, which party or candidate would you vote for?”, the Morena candidate receives 66% of the preferences, while the opposition candidate registers 14% and only 2% for the standard bearer of the Citizen Movement.
Rodrigo Galván De las Heras has pointed out that the results of the survey are not so much a forecast as the probable scenario. It is estimated that participation in the next elections will be 45%, a figure that will increase as June 2, the date of the presidential elections, approaches. In that scenario, Claudia Sheinbaum would achieve around 27 million votes, which represents 63% of the electoral roll. While Xóchitl Gálvez would have 14 million, which represents around 33%. This marks a distance of 30 points between the two.
It must be clarified that the 14% of the preferences that Gálvez obtains in the survey increase due to the foreseeable abandonment of the Citizen Movement candidate,
It is worth clarifying that Gálvez’s 14% preference in the polls would increase in the probable scenario of an abandonment of the race by Samuel García, the candidate of the Citizen Movement, which would add votes to the standard bearer of the PAN, PRI, PRD, without this meaning that it can reach Claudia Sheinbaum.
