In Poland, which holds elections next Sunday, the prime minister is called Mateusz Morawiecki, but the country’s leader since 2015 is de facto – and perceived as such – Jaroslaw Kaczynski, president of the powerful ruling party, the ultra-conservative populist Ley and Justice (PiS). At 74 years old, Kaczynski – who in June resumed the position of deputy prime minister, from which he had resigned a year before – perseveres in his vision of a country that wants Catholic, conservative, nationalist, centralized, and without criticism of the established power.
With these wicks he and his people will go to the verdict of the polls, in search of a third consecutive mandate to culminate and consolidate a political trajectory that has led Poland to continuous tensions and conflicts with Brussels, due to reproaches for an erosion in the State of law, the questioned reform of the judicial system or the partisan control of the public media.
At the moment, judging by the polls, neither these issues, nor the tension with ally Ukraine over grains – which the Government frames in its defense of Polish farmers, with the rural vote being a key asset for PiS –; nor the blocking of transfers of post-covid community funds due to misalignment with European values ??– a reprimand that Poland shares with Hungary; Nor the recent scandal of paid visas for foreigners in Polish consulates in Asian and African countries, seem to affect the support of his sympathizers.
The most recent survey – published on Tuesday – gives PiS 34.6%, ahead of the main opposition force, Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO), supported by 27.9%. Tusk, 66, a former prime minister who returned to national politics after his time in Brussels as president of the European Council (2014-2019), leads a coalition that includes his centrist party, Civic Platform (PO), and three small parties. Europeanists.
The eurosceptic Kaczynski declares himself attached to Poland’s position in the EU – not doing so would be suicidal; Polls indicate that Poles are mostly pro-European – but he defends a Europe of nations, a sovereignty that does not leave many powers to Brussels, certainly not in immigration matters. Migration and sovereignty over the EU permeate two of the four questions of the controversial referendum that the Government shoehorned into election day. “The idea of ??governing Poland from the outside must be rejected,” Kaczynski said on Saturday, implying, as always, that this is what Tusk would do if he were in charge.
“PiS presents itself as the party of law and order, attractive to those who fear change; “Studies indicate that more than half of Poles have a conservative worldview,” explains Renata Mienkowska-Norkiene, a political scientist at the University of Warsaw. “And what is known, what is not wanted to change? Catholicism, nationalism, the State as a social guarantor of the family… PiS looks its voters in the eyes and transmits to them: ‘We are the party that will protect you from illegal immigration and provide you with security in general,'” Mienkowska summarizes. -Norkiene. This occurs, the political scientist points out, with public media leaning towards the ruling party and “a campaign in general without arguments, information or debate; “Everything is emotional.”
Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who co-founded Law and Justice in 2001 with his late twin brother Lech, does not miss the opportunity to call Donald Tusk – prime minister from 2007 to 2014 – both incompetent towards Russia and a puppet of Germany. In 2022 he accused him of “covering up” the 2010 Smolensk air disaster – in which Lech Kaczynski, then president, and 95 other political figures died – to achieve a “macabre reconciliation with Russia.” He also blames his good relations with the then German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, suggesting that she ruled at the dictates of Berlin.
But he avoids him. Although Kaczynski presides over party events and speaks from various platforms, he did not attend the televised political election debate on Monday. He sent Prime Minister Morawiecki. “It is not surprising; The last time Kaczynski and Tusk held a public political debate was in 2007, and most political scientists agree that this debate was crucial for PiS to lose the elections,” recalls Renata Mienkowska-Norkiene.
Law and Justice then led a fragile government coalition (2005-2007), and since its return to power in 2015 it has had an absolute majority, although in 2019 it did not obtain it in the Senate. This time the polls predict that she could lose it in both chambers and need another party to govern, perhaps the ultra-liberal and far-right Confederation, although probably not as part of the Government. Jaroslaw Kaczynski has already blessed the possibility of making an agreement with them: “What we share is more than what separates us; patriotism and love of national independence.”
