The pharmaceutical industry and tourism are two of the sectors that will grow the most this year and next in the Spanish economy. This leading group also includes information and communication technologies (ICT) and construction, all sectors that have had a very positive trend for some time or in which Spain has a competitive advantage. These are the conclusions of the CaixaBank Research Sector Observatory that, on the other hand, place the textile and paper industry as the furthest behind. They are the most exposed to international competition.
The report draws a moderately positive outlook for the Spanish economy. Their economists acknowledge that they were surprised by the 0.7% increase in GDP in the first quarter of the year, and that this will lead them to revise their forecast for the whole of 2024. If the one they maintained was 1.9%, now it is They propose that it may even equal that of 2025, that is, reach 2.5%, which would be half a point above the Government’s forecast.
In any case, the analysis points to a stabilization of the economy, with much less dispersion between the behavior of the different sectors than that which occurred in previous years, due to the impact of the pandemic, the energy crisis, skyrocketing inflation and the increase in interest rates. In 2024 and 2025, all sectors grow, although the levels are very different. 60% of sectors are in a stabilization zone, while at the extremes 18% appear with growth above the average and another 18% below.
The pharmaceutical industry is among those that will have the best performance, continuing with the relevance that this sector has maintained in the last 25 years, and remaining as a driver of Spanish exports and private investment in R&D. “Its high competitiveness and its high degree of specialization suggests that the sector has room for growth,” the report states. For its part, tourism will benefit from the recovery of the purchasing power of the countries that send the most tourists to Spain, although growth is limited by the weakness of activity in the euro zone.
The other two sectors that also grow above average are ICT, due to their growing weight in a context of prominence of digitalization and new technologies; and construction, where the supply of new housing remains far below demand.
On the other hand, the sectors that are weakest are textiles and paper companies, which will grow, but weakly due to the high level of international competition to which they are subject and the pressure of costs in relation to these competitors. In reality, these sectors are already experiencing an unfavorable secular trend, although they will now benefit from cheaper energy prices.
In the 60% of sectors with growth close to the average, the automobile industry, agri-food, real estate and commerce stand out, which manage to normalize after the shocks of previous years.
Another notable element of the report is that the manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery after going through the bottlenecks, the increase in energy costs and the slowdown in external demand that previously hindered it. After a complicated period, in 2023 it managed to recover the pre-pandemic level both in terms of Gross Added Value (GVA) and employment, and for this year its GVA is expected to grow around 1.8%, that is, a rate similar to that of the economy as a whole.
