The Basque political scene is experiencing times of change, after years of stability and predictability. The first obvious manifestation has to do with the change of the main protagonists of Basque politics, who in a matter of weeks will begin to lead the generational change. The Basque elections this spring, in addition, will probably lead to a tighter correlation of forces within the struggle between PNV and EH Bildu, and, thirdly, it remains to be seen if the current alliance strategy that today unites Jeltzales and Socialists It cracks, after the precedent of the motion of censure in Pamplona, ??or it strengthens after the elections.
Basque citizens do not yet know when they will be called to the polls and the exact date will not be revealed at least until the internal process for proclaiming a candidate in the PNV is completed. Imanol Pradales, already in the second round of the process and as the only candidate, will be proclaimed by the national assembly of his party on January 27. From there, the Lehendakari, Iñigo Urkullu, who is responsible for this power, will make the decision together with the party and will reveal the final decision on the electoral date.
They will most likely be held in the second half of April or early May, with April 21 as the most likely date. The Jeltzales want to separate the Basque elections from the elections to the European Parliament in June, highly conditioned by the polarization between PSOE and PP, and proposed, at least from the popular ranks, as “a second round of 23-J”, in the words of Cuca Gamarra. Likewise, the PNV needs time to make its candidate, unknown outside of Bizkaia, known, and wants to send a powerful message about his management capacity at the head of the main Basque institutions and his activity in the Basque Parliament and Congress, fronts in which it has intensified its activity.
These circumstances force us to place the Basque elections halfway between two battles strongly influenced by the PSOE and PP struggle. In the Basque case, obviously, the main focus will be on the fight between Imanol Pradales and, on the part of Bildu, Pello Otxandiano, representatives of two parties that today hold 69% of parliamentary representation; However, socialists and popular people will also fight in Euskadi, both looking at Madrid and what is at stake there.
In the case of the socialists, the last Basque Sociometer gave them a slight growth, going from their current 10 seats to 11. They would continue to be the third force, although very far from the 29 seats that the PNV (today he is 31) and Bildu’s 25 (today 21). The result of Eneko Andueza’s candidacy, in any case, would be satisfactory if it allows them to grow and continue to be key in Basque governance, two objectives that would be met according to the Sociometer and that would represent a small boost before the European ones.
The PP, for its part, would go from 6 to 7 seats, according to the Sociometro, and, led by Javier de Andrés, would become the fourth force in the Basque Parliament, faced with a presumed new electoral setback in the Podemos space and Add, that if they were present separately they would directly disappear. Looking at Madrid and the European elections, the popular ones could claim this growth, although with 7 seats out of 75 in a Chamber in which they held 19 seats they will hardly be able to raise their chests.
At this point, it is worth considering a plausible hypothesis that will be one of the keys to follow ahead of the election. This is the possibility that PNV and PSE do not have an absolute majority, so that they could need the support of the PP. The aforementioned Basque Sociometer places the sum of PNV and PSE at 40 seats, two above the absolute majority (38). However, if this threshold is not reached, the Basque political board would experience a shakeup with very relevant consequences.
The PP would go from being a very secondary actor in politics in Euskadi to becoming key to guaranteeing governability. The PNV would no longer benefit from the sole support of the socialists, with whom it governs the main Basque institutions, and would be forced to look, first of all, to the popular ones, given that Bildu and the Podemos-Sumar space, if come together, they would not lend themselves to guaranteeing governability in those terms.
This paradigm of a minority government between Jeltzales and socialists with specific support from the PP, would mean tremendous wear and tear on the PNV in the short and medium term, from which Bildu would benefit, focused on cooking a change without haste focused on the wear and tear of its rival. to beat and with a component of generational change in Basque society.
From the PSE, however, there is speculation that, if the sum of 38 is not reached, the Jeltzales could look to Bildu, seeking a comfortable majority that in practice would mean a change of direction in Basque politics and that would fuel the national question. If it occurs, in any case, it would place the territorial debate within very limited parameters. Today, according to the Basque Sociometer itself, only 17% of PNV voters are openly pro-independence (40% more would be in favor of this option depending on the circumstances), while in the case of Bildu it is 54% ( 37% more depending on the circumstances).
The possibility of PNV and PSE gaining an absolute majority in this spring’s elections is, therefore, a determining aspect, the main one to be addressed beyond the possibility of being overtaken by Bildu, a hypothesis that seems unlikely. The difference between the two main formations in Basque politics is currently 10 seats and the latest Basque Sociometer estimates a distance of four in the spring elections. The correlation of forces will most likely be equal, but the Jeltzales have many options to maintain first position, their priority objective, followed by the extremely relevant need to reach 38 seats together with the PSE. It will be the best guarantee for the PNV that the alliance with the socialists can be prolonged.
The Basque nationalists cling to that possibility, which would give them room to recover from the wear and tear that the last two elections have shown and to rebuild themselves. After the Basque elections, the time will come for the replacement at the head of the PNV, with the more than probable departure of Andoni Ortuzar from the presidency of the EBB. Itxaso Atutxa, president of the party in Bizkaia, is the best positioned to take the baton and complete the generational change.
The PNV avoids talking about a change of cycle, a concept that it associates with a change of government that is certainly not the most likely option. It is evident, however, that the winds of change are blowing on the Basque political horizon and that a phase very different from that of the previous decade is emerging. The Jeltzales were then the ones who best knew how to adapt to the winds that blew after the end of ETA. Now, it remains to be seen who takes the lead in the new scenario that is emerging.
