With one week until the Iowa caucuses, the set of citizen assemblies that officially begin the primary process in the United States, no one questions Donald Trump’s leadership. What is at stake is by what percentage he will manage to beat his main rivals, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, and who of these is running as the main alternative for him in the Republican Party.
Next Monday, January 15, residents of the state of Iowa will gather in 1,700 schools, churches, sports centers and other voting centers to decide which candidate deserves the first 40 delegates that will be sent to the Republican National Convention, which will be elected in July to his challenger to occupy the White House.
The latest polls place Trump with 50% of support in the Midwestern state, far from DeSantis’ 18.4% and Haley’s 15.7%, according to the FiveThirtyEight model. The governor of Florida is the one who has put the most impetus into his campaign in Iowa, in which he has visited its 99 counties and has earned the support of the governor, Republican Kim Reynolds.
But it is not clear that his efforts will reward him: support for DeSantis, who began 2023 as a serious threat to the New York tycoon, faded throughout the year due to his lack of charisma and the meteoric rise of Haley, who arrives to Iowa with options to snatch second place. The former governor of South Carolina (2011-2017), who was part of Trump’s presidential cabinet, seeks to surprise with a message of moderation in the face of the “chaos” and “constant distractions” of the former president.
In a format that differs from a conventional primary and responds more to tradition than to utility, the citizen assemblies distributed throughout the state will serve as a first-time test for the electoral year that begins. At each voting center, the representatives of the different candidates will present their arguments and then a secret vote will be held among those attending.
After a few hours, when the count has been completed in all the assemblies, the winner will be announced, who will have 40 delegates, the first of the total of 2,469 who will elect the Republican nominee for the House in Milwaukee (Wisconsin) in July. White.
In the case of the Democratic Party, this year it has chosen to change its voting system: instead of doing it in assemblies, citizens must vote for their candidate by mail. This format will allow those people who could not attend the caucus due to work commitments or disabilities to vote.
Although the Democrats will also hold citizen assemblies next Monday, they will not have any binding or immediate effect: the result of the vote by mail will not be known until next March 5, coinciding with Super Tuesday, another key date, in which up to 16 states will hold their electoral processes.
Iowa has been opening the primary season since 1968, when the Democratic Party left the selection of its candidate in the hands of citizens for the first time. As it is the first vote, its result usually gives clues about the state of form of the different candidates and influences the primaries of the other 49 states, the District of Columbia and the territories associated with the United States.
However, on this occasion, its impact is not predicted to be as decisive: Trump’s absolute leadership and the lack of alternatives to Biden reduce expectations for Iowa compared to other electoral cycles. All eyes will be on the battle for second place, between DeSantis and Haley.
The Republican who comes in second position will not take any delegates, but will position himself at the national level as the clear alternative to the former president. Trump, the first president to be criminally prosecuted in the history of the country – up to four times – is taking electoral advantage of his delicate judicial position with a victim-oriented speech, and already surpasses Biden in the general polls, who at this point is the president with the lowest approval ratings since there have been polls.
“I ask you not to stay home, even though the polls say we are going to win by a landslide,” Trump asked his followers this weekend in Sioux Center (Iowa), “the more you go out to vote, the stronger our message will be. for the November elections: we are invincible”.
