The real estate market is already intensely feeling the effects of rate increases and the increase in financing costs. In September, home purchase transactions fell by 23.7%, the highest percentage since July 2020, reaching 44,086, according to INE data. It is an example of the slowdown in this activity, but also, in the opinion of the real estate portals, a logical behavior after a particularly dynamic 2022.
With the new drop, sales have accumulated eight months of decline in year-on-year terms and place this September as the most anemic in three years. If compared to the previous month, the drop is 10.5%, and if the first nine months of the year are taken, the drop is 8.5% compared to the same period in 2022.
Second-hand home purchase operations, which are equivalent to 81% of the total, have been the most affected, with decreases of 24%, while in the case of new ones the decline has been 19%. Overall, the INE graphs show a market that begins to fall in December and that, except for January, has not stopped going down.
The real estate portals have welcomed the new setback without drama. “The size of the declines is also caused by the step effect that is compared to a year of so much activity like 2022,” they say from Idealista, while from Fotocasa they deny the “stop” in the market and prefer to use the term “accommodation.” .
Pisos.com considers that the forecasts for the year are being met except with regard to prices, “which continue with an upward trend”, a circumstance that could change in the first quarter of 2024. “The evolution of interest rates will be key. interest and the housing policies carried out by the Government of Pedro Sánchez,” he points out.
The latest data from the Bank of Spain show that in September mortgages were signed for 4,231 million euros, an amount 22% lower than the 5,435 million euros on average throughout last year. “The contractionary trend in activity and credit in the housing market that began in the third quarter of 2022 has continued in the elapsed part of 2023,” indicates the institution in its autumn financial stability report, in which it does not leave to highlight one of the elements that most surprises the market: more purchases are being signed without mortgages than with them.
The INE calculates, in this case with data from August, that the number of mortgages has decreased by 22% compared to the same month of the previous year. Its average amount is also declining, by 4.6%, and is now 138,171 euros.
By autonomous community, where the drop in home sales is most noticeable is the Canary Islands, with a decrease of 40% in September compared to the same month of the previous year. In Catalonia the drop was 28.8%, while in Madrid it stood at 23.8%.
The decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain interest rates for at least two quarters is contributing to containing the Euribor, which today marks a daily rate below 4% for the first time since June, at 3.99%. In monthly terms, it has been above 4% since May
